Home Market Market Watch Morning Outlook

Morning Outlook

SHARE

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com//wp-content/uploads//2015/04/image0097.jpg

Overnight Highlights

·         The dollar rebounded sharply overnight, trading over 900 points higher at times, as buyers re-emerge after the greenback fails to test late March lows and concerns about Greece linger.

·         Money flows into the equity sector overnight at the expense of commodities as the dollar rallies.

·         Midwest corn seeding won’t be completely stalled over the next week, but it will be slow as rains cross the region.

·         Readings as high as the mid-90s °F will plague the Plains winter wheat belt for another day or two, but a wetter pattern is expected starting early next week.

·         Rains will be limited in Brazil over the next week, allowing for active harvest progress, but return in the 6- to 10-day period to sustain high yield prospects for safrinha corn.

·         The first U.S. winter wheat condition index score of the growing season was very close to normal with problems focused primarily on the Central Plains where ratings continue to decline, with better conditions further east.

·         Traders are also positioning for Thursday morning’s USDA monthly crop report, with pre-report trade estimates as follows:

U.S. Ending Stocks

2014-15

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

billions of bushels

USDA April Report

Average Trade Estimate

0.692

1.854

0.370

Highest Trade Estimate

0.721

1.999

0.399

Lowest Trade Estimate

0.671

1.750

0.347

Previous USDA Estimate

0.691

1.777

0.385

Water Street Solutions

0.693

1.774

0.371

 

South American Production

Argentina

Brazil

Corn

Soybeans

Corn

Soybeans

MMT of Production

USDA Report

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

23.90

57.23

74.82

94.18

Highest Trade Estimate

29.30

60.20

77.40

95.00

Lowest Trade Estimate

22.00

55.50

73.00

93.00

Previous USDA Estimate

23.50

56.00

75.00

94.50

Water Street Solutions

26.00

58.00

75.00

94.50

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the U.S., rain favored far southeast MO, TN, far western KY, and central/far northern AL in the past day, with scattered light rains also noted in the southern Midwest and Great Lakes and snow in the northwest Plains.

Midwest/Delta rains gradually expand by Thursday/Friday across much of the corn belt, with another surge favoring the Delta and central/southwest Midwest late Sunday/Monday. While not completely stalled, this will slow corn seeding over the next week. A few showers may return to the western/southern Midwest in the 11 to 15 day, but breaks in the pattern starting at the middle of next week should aid early Midwest fieldwork.

A more active pattern may persist in the Delta, keeping fieldwork slow and increasing risks for quality declines to soft wheat. While heat (upper 80s to mid-90s) will linger for another day or two in the S. Plains wheat belt and add to stress for early jointing, our outlook continues to side with wetter guidance and supports improving rain chances to start next week and again late next week. Best chances for relief are in TX, OK, and the southeast 1/2 of KS.

In South America, rain was confined (.25 to 1”, locally 2”) to the northern 1/2 of the safrinha corn belt yesterday. Rains remain limited in soy/sugarcane harvest areas over the next week, aiding progress. Rains return to the central belt later in the 6 to 10 day in time to keep safrinha corn in good shape.

Rains could potentially reach the drier eastern 1/3 of the coffee late next week and is needed to avert yield declines to the filling crop. The rains then would slow sugarcane harvest but are not expected to be damaging. Near to above normal 16 to 30 day rains would aid safrinha corn.

Argentina was dry yesterday. Showers return this weekend and again later next week, slowing corn/soy harvest progress. Rains in the 11 to 15 day keep harvest slower, but only seasonable rains are forecast for the 16 to 30 day to limit damage potential.

Morning Market Snapshot

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com//wp-content/uploads//2015/04/image0107.jpg

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com//wp-content/uploads//2015/04/image0117.jpg

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com//wp-content/uploads//2015/04/image0127.png

www.waterstreet.org 
or 1-866-249-2528

 

 

https://www.waterstreet.org/s/ws-80x70.png

Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

The information contained in this e-mail message is intended only for the personal and confidential use of the recipient(s) named above. This message may be an attorney-client communication and/or work product and as such is privileged and confidential. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient or an agent responsible for delivering it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this document in error and that any review, dissemination, distribution, or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by e-mail, and delete the original message. Water Street Solutions is an equal opportunity provider. Water Street Solutions is an equal opportunity employer.

 



Indiana Farm Expo