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Morning Outlook



Overnight Highlights

·         The dollar consolidated lower overnight after big gains on Tuesday.

·         Crude oil prices slipped lower on data showing that Saudi Arabia pushed its oil production to a record high 10.3 million barrels per day in March in its battle for market share.

·         The grain and oilseed markets were quiet overnight as traders wait for tomorrow’s USDA crop report.

·         Rains will be the most frequent in the Midwest over the next 10 days, slowing fieldwork., while the Delta will be wettest in the 6- to 15-day period.

·         Support for 6- to 15-day rains in the Southern Plains is fairly good, aiding wheat in the region.

·         A week of dry weather is expected to aid harvest progress in Argentina and Brazil.

·         The trade expects USDA to trim corn and soybean production estimates in Brazil tomorrow, while boosting estimates for the same in Argentina.

·         A week-long fire at a fuel facility next to Brazil’s largest port at Santos is expected to slow soybean exports, but it’s still unclear whether the delays will significantly increase U.S. exports. At this point the delays are expected to be a mere matter of days.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the U.S., rains favored parts of southeast MN, central WI, central MI, east-central MO, far southeast KS, northern/far southern IL, far southeast IA, southern IN, central KY, and central SC in the past day, including locally nearly 4” in southern IN and east-central MO.

Rains will be widespread in the Midwest into Friday, favoring central/northwest areas. Additional rains then favor the central/southeast Midwest mid to late next week. The rains will slow early fieldwork and threaten some localized flooding, but a less active pattern in the balance of April should then allow wetness concerns to ease. Delta rains will occur late Thursday/Friday, but the more active period will be for much of next week and again in the 16 to 30 day. This will keep fieldwork somewhat slow and could raise quality concerns for soft wheat.

Recent heat (80s to mid-90s) eases after today in the S. Plains. While still some disagreement, model support continues to gradually build for beneficial rains Saturday to Monday and again in the 11 to 15 day, with additional chances also in the 16 to 30 day. While dryness may continue in mainly northern KS/NE, the timely showers should aid jointing/heading to the south.

In South America, rain (.25 to 1.25”, locally 2.5”) favored the northern 1/4 of the Brazil corn yesterday. Rains remain limited to the north over the next week, aiding soy/sugar harvest progress. Rains return to the south in the 6 to 10 day, keeping corn moisture adequate and possibly easing dryness in the southeast coffee belt late next week but slowing sugar harvest. Above normal 16 to 30 day rains would aid safrinha corn.

Argentina showers (.25 to .75”) favored the southwest 1/4 of the belt yesterday. Dry conditions prevail until later next week, when rains slow corn/soy harvest. Rains taper off in the 11 to 15 day, and near to below normal rains in the 16 to 30 day should allow harvest to recover and will minimize damage risks.

Dryness in Southern Australia Delaying Wheat Seeding in Quarter of Belt. Rain in western and eastern areas in the past week replenished moisture and will encourage planting. Dryness in South Australia/Victoria will delay seeding and could be a problem if rains falter through the rest of the month.

Morning Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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