Home Market Market Watch Morning Outlook

Morning Outlook




Overnight Highlights

·         Grains stronger in the overnight across the board. Corn +3-4, Soybeans +4-5, Wheat +7-8.

·         Dollar, Energies, Gold and Silver stronger to start the week as well.

·         China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center released a report showing they expect soybean imports to rise by 5.5% to 77 million MT in the 15/16 market year. This is comparable to the latest USDA estimate.

·         Markets are expecting this afternoon’s USDA report to show Corn planting estimated to be 85-90% complete vs. 75% last week and 76% average for the date.

·         Markets are expecting this afternoon’s USDA report to show Soybean planting estimated to be 50-55% complete vs. 31% last week and 38% average for the date.

·         Frost risk remains on the table for northern areas.

·         Today’s rains focused on ND, SD and the delta with extended outlook to be cool and wet.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the Midwest/Delta, weekend showers were widespread with the exception of NC Midwest where planting was still possible especially in E. IA, N. IL, and WI. Drier conditions this week will allow a slow recovery of planting progress with greatest de-lays focused in the SW Midwest where rains could return as early as mid-week. That will limit corn/soy seeding for NE/KS/ MO. Rains return later next weekend and continue into the 11-15 day mainly stretching out soybean planting. A strong cold push behind the weekend system in the NW Midwest is leading to light snow and near freezing temps this morning in ND. Lows in the mid-to-upper 20s in all but southeast ND and north central SD potentially damaging emerging corn as nearly 1/2 of the acreage is vulnerable. Delta showers will taper off now but the heavy weekend rains will make a return to fields slow. AR could see showers return as early as mid-week further slowing recovery. That area will be most prone to soft wheat quality decline and localized flooding. Rains do diminish in the 6 to 10 day but increase in the 11 to 15 day. The 16 to 30 day rain pattern continues to threaten the N. Delta, while showers in the Midwest corn/soy are more seasonable and aid early growth.


In the Plains, weekend rains were widespread with only E. CO and far W. KS seeing minimal showers. Heaviest rains were in SC and E. KS. Widespread rains mid to late week continue to add to quality declines and keep localized flooding an ongoing concern, especially in the TX and OK area. The southwest Plains should finally see a drier trend begin to develop next week but southeast areas remain unfavorably wet. U.S. spring wheat areas have abundant moisture after the weekend, but Canada remains dry. This is allowing rapid seeding completion but may stress early growth especially n S. Alberta.

Morning Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




or 1-866-249-2528


Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

The information contained in this e-mail message is intended only for the personal and confidential use of the recipient(s) named above. This message may be an attorney-client communication and/or work product and as such is privileged and confidential. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient or an agent responsible for delivering it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this document in error and that any review, dissemination, distribution, or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by e-mail, and delete the original message. Water Street Solutions is an equal opportunity provider. Water Street Solutions is an equal opportunity employer.