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Morning Outlook




Overnight Highlights

·         Grains stronger overnight. Corn up 3, Beans up 9, Wheat up 2-4.

·         Ag Resource issued their corn yield estimate at 166 bpa resulting in production of 13.463 billion bushel. FC Stone will be out this afternoon and Informa tomorrow.

·         Crude and gold higher in overnight trade while global equities are mixed and the US dollar index is lower.

·         USDA reported corn conditions 70% G/E vs. 70% last week, 73% last year and 59% on average.

·         USDA reported soybean conditions 63% G/E vs. 62% last week, 71% last year and 58% average.

·         Louisiana reported corn harvest 5% complete vs 1% last year and 16% on average.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the Midwest/South, thundershowers favored the NE/SD border, northern MO, far southeast IN, far southwest OH, and eastern SC in the past day. A few chances for thundershowers focus on the southern Midwest during the rest of the week, with a chance also late in the week for the far northwest Midwest. This will precede a less active 6 to 10 day, as scattered showers exit the eastern OH Valley early and focus on the northwest late. However, this week’s rain should aid moisture in recently drier sections of southern NE/southern IL/southwest IN in addition to offering another rain event for many shallow rooted crop areas in central IL and the remainder of the southern OH Valley. The best chance for ongoing dryness concerns will focus on northeast IA, southern WI, and northern IL (10% of Midwest), but the most notable heat/dryness is more likely to focus on soy areas in eastern TX/LA/southern AR/MS/AL/Carolinas in the next 2 weeks to trim yield potential. The shower pattern begins to become more active again in the central/southeast Midwest in the 11 to 15 day and across the entire belt early in the 16 to 30 day to aid late corn/soy growth, with no notable heat expected for the Midwest.

In the N. Plains/Canada, nearly dry conditions prevailed in the past day, but a wetter pattern will develop through Friday in the region. This will cause minor delays to harvest in the U.S. while aiding late wheat/canola growth in Canada. However, earlier notable losses in western Canada will still not be recovered, particularly for maturing wheat. Showers are a bit more limited for U.S. harvest in the 6 to 10 day, with a favorably dry 11 to 15 day. However, the 16 to 30 day still suggests some slower than average harvest progress, albeit not quite as wet of a forecast as yesterday.

Morning Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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