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Morning Outlook




Overnight Highlights

·         Grains mixed overnight. Corn unchanged, Soy up 5, Wheat mixed.

·         Energies higher, stocks higher, metals lower, US dollar slightly higher but well off its overnight highs after taking out the July 20 high.

·         FC Stone’s production estimate came out with a 165 bu corn yield with 13.381 bil bu of production and a 45 bu soybean yield for production of 3.797 bil bu. Informa will release their estimates this morning.

·         Yesterday Funds reportedly bought 3,000 contracts of Soybeans, 3,000 of Soy Meal, and 6,000 of Corn.

·         Forecast continues to look good for crop development, however heat is building in the mid-south and some areas of the Eastern Midwest are looking for moisture.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the Midwest/South, thundershowers favored south-central NE, central KS, and central/southern MO in the past day, with a few showers in west-central IA, near the IA/MO border, southern IL, southwest IN, central KY, southeast GA, and eastern NC. Showers still catch the southwest Midwest/northern Delta over the next 2 days, but rain chances in the OH Valley have shifted closer to and south of the OH River. Showers chances during the balance of the period then shift to the northwest Midwest. Dry spots in northeast IA, northern IL, and southern WI will persist, while rains will aid drier sections of southeast ND, southern NE, southern IL, and southwest IN. Shower potential has improved in the 6 to 15 day for the drier spots near the IA/WI border to ease concerns. While placement of rains is still low confidence in the 6 to 15 day, central IL/central IN will remain on the edge of the best shower chances, and this could raise the risk for shallow-rooted crops in this region to come under increased stress before a wetter 16 to 30 day arrives. Moisture should remain adequate elsewhere to support crop development, and notable heat remains very unlikely in the Midwest. Heat will remain more frequent in the Delta/Southeast, but showers in the next few days should help to keep dryness concerns focused on eastern TX/LA/southern AR/central MS/ SC soy (no more than 1/3 of Delta/Southeast).

In the N. Plains/Canada, showers scattered into mainly MT, central Alberta, and south-central/ eastern Saskatchewan, and rains through Friday will continue to curb any additional yield loss in Canadian wheat/canola with the exception of a few spots in mainly eastern Alberta. However, earlier notable losses in western Canada will not be recovered. Showers will slow early harvest in the next 10 days for U.S. spring wheat areas.

Morning Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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