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Morning Outlook



Overnight Highlights

* Overnight trade has corn even, soybeans -1, wheat even, crude -.65, dollar index -.35, gold -20 and the Dow Jones +67.

* Corn export sales 708,800 mt, expected 250-500k. Soybean export sales 2.09 million mt, expected 1.5-2.0 mln mt. Wheat export sales 550,300 mt, expected 300-600k mt.

* First notice day for Soybeans tomorrow.

* Dry areas of Brazil getting rains. Enough anyway to support planting with the extended forecast looking cooperative.

* Recent Chinese nightly interest in US soybean offers seems to have faded this week.

* Potash Corp of Saskatchewan cut its full year earnings forecast and said it expects to sell less potash in the year than expected due to weak demand and prices.

* 6-10 day forecast is warm and wet.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


In the U.S., rains (.25 to 1.0″, locally 2.0″) favored the eastern 1/3 of the Midwest and the Carolinas yesterday. Only W. MO and S. IL are still in need of more moisture for soft red wheat. Showers this weekend benefit S. Plains wheat. The main shift in the forecast today was to increase rains for the Plains and Midwest wheat areas in the 6-10 day which should help to eliminate much of the remaining moisture deficits in E. KS and N. OK as well as the SW Midwest. The decrease in rains in the Delta in the 6-10 day ease excess wetness concerns for the southern quarter of the belt. Midwest harvest delays may pick up in the 6-10 day but with drier weather for all but the far southeast belt in the 11-15 day damage potential remains minimal.

In South America, showers in Brazil favored C. Mato Grosso, SW Goias, N. Sao Paulo, S. Minas Gerais and N. Parana yesterday. Rains continue to be scattered across the north 1/2 of soy areas next 2 days and then increase in coverage and intensity over the northern 3/4 of the corn/soy areas this weekend through the first half of next week before tapering off in the 11-15 day period. Showers are limited in the southern half of the wheat belt aiding harvest over the next 10 days but are also looking more limited in the northeast half of the coffee belt which may still hamper delayed bloom and further threaten production potential. The drier 11-15 day will aid corn/soy seeding progress in the north but showers in S. Brazil will slow wheat harvest once again. Late sugarcane harvest and transportation remain hampered by wetness next 10 days. Argentina rains (.25 to 1.25″, locally 2.25″) favored the SW half of the wheat belt. Rains today favor the north 1/2 of the belt further aiding heading wheat and early corn growth. While some models rush showers back the next upturn in rains looks likely to be later in the 11-15 day. This would help keep moisture adequate without leading to corn/soy planting delays.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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