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Morning Outlook



Overnight Highlights

· Overnight trade has corn -1, soybeans -2 ½, wheat +1-2, crude -.37, dollar +.06, and gold -.7.

· USDA weekly export sales normally released on Thursday will be released on Friday, November 13th at 7:30 a.m. CST due to Veteran’s Day holiday this week.

· Iranian media, citing the country’s deputy ag minister, reported the country’s ample domestic wheat production will allow them to halt wheat imports and actually begin exporting a surplus of 300,000 mt of durum wheat by March 2016.

· After Argentina’s opposition presidential candidate yesterday said he would slash current grain and oilseed taxes, the incumbent party presidential candidate adviser says he would also eliminate grain export taxes and other farmer controls. This revision of policy is in direct contradiction of the current parties intervention policy.

· The Argentina Rosario Grain Exchange issued an estimate for the 15/16 corn crop at 20.2 mmt verses last year’s crop at 26.5 mmt. The exchange noted that this number could change rapidly if there is a surge in planting after the presidential runoff on Nov 22.

· Weather forecasters are calling for a weather shift in Northern and Central areas of Brazil to a cooler and wetter pattern, easing concerns over many of the most moisture deficit areas of the country.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


In the U.S., rains (.25 to 1″, locally 2.5″) favored southern MN, IA, NE, WI, northern IL, southern OH, eastern AR, and northern LA yesterday. Snow accumulations were 1 to 5″ in the northwest Plains. The next significant showers return to the Plains/ Midwest/Delta in the first half of next week. Rain potential for the dry areas in eastern KS continues to improve with the latest models, and confidence increases for beneficial moisture that is still in time to aid late growth. The Delta will be most likely to see heavy rains (up to 5″), leading to further wheat seeding delays and localized flooding. Another surge of rains in the 11 to 15 day keeps the Delta excessively wet. Southeast cotton/soy harvest remains favorably dry until late in the 6 to 10 day.

In South America, scattered showers occurred in far southeast Mato Grosso, northern/eastern Mato Grosso do Sul, eastern/ far western Sao Paulo, far southeast Minas Gerais, eastern/northwest Parana, western Santa Catarina, and northwest Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil yesterday. Gradually expanding rains through next week will aid corn/soy/coffee/sugarcane growth in nearly all areas, with northern showers beginning to diminish in the 11 to 15 day. The showers will not be excessive but will cause occasional interruptions to sugarcane fieldwork and port loading in central Brazil. Highs currently in the mid-90s to low 100s across northern soy areas will also ease with the upturn in showers after this week. Wheat areas will continue to encounter slow harvest progress and quality declines due to wetter than normal weather in RGDS. Argentina had showers linger in the far north early yesterday, with another round of rain entering La Pampa, northwest Buenos Aires, far southern Santa Fe, and far southern Cordoba this morning. These rains will head east today, and additional 6 to 15 day showers are favored to ease minor rain deficits for corn/soy/wheat. However, some guidance does show a drier risk.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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