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Morning Outlook



Overnight Highlights

· Overnight trade has corn up 2, soybeans 3, wheat 1 ¾ – 2, crude unchanged, dollar -.095, and gold -.7.

· Quiet night of news, with any positivity coming from bargain buying end users and some short covering.

· USDA AG Sec Vilsack recently said that US trade and animal health officials will press China to reopen their markets to imports of US poultry at a trade conference to start on November 21. The Chinese closed their borders in reaction to the outbreak of bird flu this summer, but no new cases have been found since mid-June.

· The EU, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and New Zealand are proposing to the WTO to agree to end agricultural export subsidies at a meeting next month. The plan would ban subsidies within 11 years; a similar plan was proposed in 2008, but was not passed due to the dominance of the U.S. in worldwide grain exports at the time.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


In the U.S., rains (.50 to 2.5″, locally 4.5″) covered most of the Delta/western Midwest soft wheat yesterday, with 3 to 8″ snow totals in southeast CO/western KS. The storm will spread rains across the eastern Midwest/Delta today. A quick-moving weekend storm crosses the northern Midwest, with snow (mainly 2 to 6″) in IA/WI/northern IL/MI that will set back very late corn harvest. Delta wheat benefits from drier weather after today, easing standing water problems. However, late seeding in the southern 1/4 of the belt will remain slow, with more rains late next week. Plains wheat turns drier for much of the next 2 weeks, but colder trends end moisture needs as dormancy sets in. Winterkill threats are unlikely with cold pushes next week.

In South America, scattered showers favored parts of far southern Mato Grosso do Sul, northern Parana, southwest Sao Paulo, and central Minas Gerais in the past day for Brazil. A wet pattern remains likely across Brazil during much of the next two weeks, with the heaviest amounts in Parana. The best rain chances in Center-West soy areas appear to arrive to finish this week and again by the 11 to 15 day. The rains will once again recharge moisture for northern soy areas as well as coffee, limiting concerns. While the rains will slow loading in central ports, most of Parana soy has been seeded. While the heaviest totals could still cause some localized flooding, the biggest totals largely remain north of unplanted soy and the end stages of wheat harvest in Rio Grande do Sul. Argentina picked up scattered showers again in the past day, particularly in parts northern Cordoba, central/far northern Santa Fe, western Entre Rios, and northwest/eastern Buenos Aires. Additional rains are likely in at least 1/2 of corn/soy/ wheat through tomorrow, with additional showers in the early to middle part of next week and again late in the 11 to 15 day. Crop growth remains behind normal but largely stable.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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