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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

·         Ukrainian forces are reportedly losing ground now that rebel forces have support from Russian troops and equipment.

·         Moscow claims that NATO satellite pictures of advancing Russian troops and equipment were fabricated from computer games.

·         Regardless, the escalating war supports wheat to modest gains once again headed into a three-day holiday weekend.

·         The markets will be closed Sunday night and Monday for the Labor Day holiday, with electronic trading reopening again at 7 p.m. CDT Monday.

·         Corn prices softened again overnight, with December slipping again below the 20-day moving average.

·         Soybeans firm, led by September, on tight supplies ahead of harvest.

·         Today is first notice day for deliveries against the September contract. There were no delivery notices for corn, soybeans or soymeal, as expected. There were 58 delivery notices for Chicago wheat, all posted by ADM, and a surprising 800 contracts of KC wheat posted, again all be ADM.

·         Abundant showers and warm temperatures are expected to aid late corn and soybean development over the next two weeks.

·         An active rain pattern over the western Midwest into September is expected to slow the start of harvest.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the U.S., scattered storms favored the NE Panhandle, central KS, southwest OK, central TX, central SD, central/southeast IA, southeast MN, west-central WI, and parts of central/far southern IL in the past day, including locally 3 to 5” near Springfield, IL and southwest of Des Moines, IA.

Current showers scatter eastward across the Midwest into the weekend, along with another areas of showers in the northwest Midwest. This will be followed by widespread activity Monday into Wednesday, with the storm track then focusing on the upper Midwest for the rest of the 6 to 10 day but expanding in the 11 to 15 day. The warm/showery pattern will support favorable late corn/soy growth in the belt, although a continuation of wetter conditions in the western Midwest into the 16 to 30 day suggests a slow start to harvest in KS, NE, IA, southeast MN, and WI next month.

The 16 to 30 day did trend cooler in the northwest Midwest and needs to be watched for frost risks in late-developing fields, but risks are still low. The best chance for rain in the South will occur this weekend, with some reduction in dry spots across southern MO, northern AR, and far western KY. Otherwise, limited showers aid early harvest well into September.

Scattered showers did reach wet spring wheat areas near the Canadian border in the past day (particularly northeast MT), and additional showers late this weekend and again next Thursday/Friday will cause additional harvest interruptions. The rains do not appear heavy enough to threaten additional quality declines or losses, and the 11 to 15 day and 16 to 30 day remain quieter as rains shift focus to adding moisture for newly seeded winter wheat to the south.

Morning Market Snapshot

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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