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Morning Outlook


Overnight Highlights

* Overnight trade is currently corn -1, soybeans -1, Chicago wheat even, KC wheat +3, MPLS wheat +2, crude -.32, gold -1.5, and the US dollar +.21.

********* India government sources say they will be looking to import around 500k mt of corn to alleviate domestic price in the wake of this year’s drought.

********* Rosario Grain exchange said today that corn and bean planting is on pace in Argentina, with 78% of corn and 87% of beans planted, in line with year on year pace.

********* Wheat harvest is still running behind in Argentina, with 75% of the crop harvested verses 88% last year.

********* Overnight the US Coast Guard closed a 76 mile strip of the Mississippi river starting at Chester IL. The river is set to crest over the next 48 hours with large scale flooding affecting the St. Louis area.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In South America, thundershowers were limited to patchy sections of northwest Mato Grosso, central/southeast Mato Grosso do Sul, eastern Goias, central/southeast Minas Gerais, northwest Parana, and northern Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil in the past day. However, guidance remains consistent and very supportive of a notable surge in moisture for drier northern crop areas in the first 1/2 of January. This is likely to ease current moisture stress in 20% of corn/soy, including parts of Mato Grosso, Tocantins, eastern Goias, Minas Gerais, and Bahia. Coffee/sugar areas will also see extensive relief. While a few showers are possible at the middle of next week, recent notably wet areas in RGDS (10% of corn/soy and over 1/2 of rice) will otherwise be drier through much of next week, as much of the heavier rain focuses on Argentine cotton. However, notable rains do return late next week in southern Brazil. Fungicide applications will also remain important to control soy rust concerns. Argentina picked up rains in Santiago del Estero, far northern Santa Fe, northern/western Cordoba, central/southeast La Pampa, and southwest Buenos Aires in the past day. While hindering wheat harvest, extensive coverage aids corn/soy growth in all but a few eastern areas over the next five days (mainly Sunday/Monday). While some guidance continues to support wetter 6 to 15 day risks, our outlook is otherwise relatively dry, and crop conditions should be largely stable.

In the U.S., rain (.25 to 1.5″, locally 3.5″) fell across the Southeast in the past day. Showers linger in the Southeast today. Dry weather will ease flooding conditions in the next week for the Midwest/Delta wheat. Mainly light showers are expected in these areas at the end of next week but should be short lived and not enough to add to damage potential. Colder conditions over the next two weeks in the Plains/Midwest wheat remain too weak to threaten winterkill.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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