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Morning Outlook


Overnight Highlights

* Overnight markets have corn -1/2, soybeans -1, wheat even, crude oil -.10, dollar even, gold +7.0 and the Dow -20.
* Quiet outside markets and cash selling and good South American crops weighing on markets.
* Bloomberg’s survey of traders had estimates for US spring plantings at; Corn 89.6 mln ac vs 88.0 LY. Soybeans 83.3 mln ac vs 82.7 mln LY.
* Cordonnier raised his estimate for the 15/16 Brazilian soybean crop to 99 mln mt, up 1.0 mln from last week. He increased his 15/16 corn production to 84.0 mln mt, up 800k from last week.
* Safras Mercado estimated Brazil soy harvest at 24 percent complete as of Friday. This compares to 18 percent last year and 21 percent avg for date.
* UkrAgroConsult expects Ukrainian grain harvest to fall 10 percent in 2016 due to the sharp drop in winter wheat production and poor weather.
* Yesterday funds bought 7,000 corn, 6,000 soybeans and sold 4,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In South America, thundershowers scattered across parts of central/northwest Mato Grosso do Sul, far southern Goias, southern Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, northern/eastern Parana, and western Mato Grosso in the past day for Brazil. Locally heavy rain in the next ten days will focus on Parana and MGDS, slowing fieldwork and port loading and threatening some pockets of excess moisture. However, the rains are expected to begin lifting to the north late in the 6 to 10 and into the 11 to

15 day, aiding recently drier key safrinha corn areas in the Center-West and only potentially missing parts of Northeast Brazil. While model disagreement remains, more solutions did flip to the wetter side today as tropical forcing from the Pacific improves, aiding forecast confidence a bit. The expanding rain will also aid late coffee/sugar growth in Center-South Brazil. short-changed). Argentine showers were limited to the far southwest in the past day, with scattered activity continuing in the west over the next couple of days and then expanding through the northern 1/2 of the belt on Friday. This will include some of the very wet spots this month in northern Cordoba/central Santa Fe, but a drier pattern next week should still keep flooding and damage potential localized. The rains have still been a net benefit, helping to ensure high yield potential for corn/soy in the region. Low 90s will linger for the next couple of days, but severe heat remains unlikely through the next two weeks.

In the U.S., rains fell in the southern 2/3 of the Delta (.25 to 1.25″, locally 2.5″) and southern 1/4

of the S. Plains (.25 to 1.25″, locally 2.5″) yesterday. Rains in the southeast Plains/Delta/eastern

Midwest/Southeast in the next 2 days aid wheat growth, and additional 6 to 15 day showers keep

the Delta/eastern Midwest well-supplied. 11 to 15 day rains in the S. Plains are needed, as limited

moisture remains a concern for growth in southeast CO/southwest KS/northern OK hard wheat.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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