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Morning Outlook


Overnight Highlights

* Overnight markets have corn +1/2, soybeans +3 3/4, wheat even, crude oil +.77, dollar +.57, gold -7.0 and the Dow +130.
* Short covering and stronger outside markets has grains generally higher in overnight trade.
* France AgriMer data shows 93 percent of the soft wheat crop in good to excellent condition. Off just one point from last year. Coceral projects EU soft wheat production to be off -5.1 mln mt from 2015.
* The anticipated Brazil trucker strike that started today has yielded sporadic road blockages.
* Chinese Dalian exchange corn is down over $.60/bu on the week on the anticipation of the release of government reserves into the domestic market. Domestic Chinese corn price is now essentially on par with imports.
* Strong global veg oil prices continue to provide support to the soybean oil contract.
* Commitment of Traders report will be out this afternoon from the CFTC showing reportable positions as of the end of Tuesday.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


In South America, showers scattered across central/southeast Mato Grosso, southwest Goias, western Minas Gerais, far western Bahia, far northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and northern/eastern Sao Paulo in Brazil in the past day. Dry spots persist near the Mato Grosso/MGDS border and in the Northeast, affecting only 10% of safrinha corn and 20% of coffee. Conditions otherwise are stable, with 6 to 15 day rains shifting to the southern 1/3 of the soy belt. Drier conditions will aid port loading/
fieldwork in recently wet sections of Parana/Sao Paulo. Guidance for the 16 to 30 day continues to show limited rain in Center-South sugar areas to limit early harvest concerns, while the Euro model supports another round of beneficial moisture into Center-West safrinha corn by early April. Argentina remains mostly dry, allowing wet fields in eastern Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios to drain and aiding harvest. Rains return next Thursday/Friday, but the 11 to 15 day is not as wet. The Euro model remains wetter in the 16 to 30 day but may be overstating the wet pattern, and the CFS model was not as wet today.

In the U.S., rain (.50 to 3″, locally 9.5″) fell across the Delta while the southeast Midwest received .25 to 1.5″ yesterday. Moderate to heavy rains linger in the eastern Delta today, expanding flooding in eastern LA/MS. Showers from an upper-level system move north this weekend (.50 to 2″), benefiting the eastern 1/3 of the Plains wheat and replenishing soil moisture reserves in the Midwest wheat. Showers in the Delta this weekend and two more rain events in the 6 to 15 day hamper draining of waterlogged fields and further delay early corn planting. Rains are likely to benefit the C. Plains in the 6 to 10 day, but the southwest belt is still not favored for rains despite occasional model runs having a
more southerly storm track that would be wetter. Cooler trends in the GFS are not strong enough
for freeze damage to impact Plains wheat

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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