* Overnight markets have corn +2, soybeans -3, wheat mixed, crude oil -1.10, dollar +.33, gold -4.0 and the Dow -30.
* Mixed grain trade overnight. Corn supported from the huge fund short position reported in Friday’s COT report.
* Commitment of Traders with options as of March 8 shows Managed Money short corn -229,176 (up -25,339), short soybeans -42,906 (off 38,553) and short wheat -92,450 (off 15,027).
* Friday funds bought 7,000 corn, 7,000 soybeans and sold 1,000 wheat.
* Brazil’s Mato Grosso state reports soy harvest 76.6 percent complete vs 80.2 last year and 76.1 average for the date.
* Today is last trade day for March grain contracts.
* Wheat conditions being monitored by the trade in the dry areas of the Plains and wet of the Delta and South. Early dormancy break has wheat at risk of cold snaps, but no cold on the docket for now.
Commodity Weather Group Forecast
In the U.S., weekend rains scattered from the southeast Plains through much of the soft wheat belt but favored the Delta, northern IL, northern/eastern IN, OH, southern MI, and the Mid-Atlantic. Heavy amounts were mostly along the Gulf Coast, but widespread coverage (mostly .50 to 1.25″) in the Delta kept fields unfavorably wet. Showers linger today in the OH and TN Valleys and move through the upper Midwest on Tuesday/Wednesday, with a disturbance then bringing a few showers to
the central/southeast Plains and Gulf Coast late in the week. While somewhat limited showers in the next ten days allow the Delta to drain and ease flooding risks, extensive rain returns in the 11 to 15 day. Warm temperatures will encourage early corn seeding in areas where field conditions allow across the Delta/far southern Midwest, but many areas will remain too wet. Plains wheat growth will continue to advance quickly, with a brief cool shot late this week not strong enough to pose any
damage threat. Showers appear limited in the western Plains through the next two weeks, and the 16 to 30 day also keeps rain chances limited in the southwest 1/3 of the belt. This will allow concerns for wheat stress to build for these areas.
In the South America, rains (.50 to 2″, locally 3.5″) favored northern/eastern Mato Grosso, Goias, and southern/western Minas Gerais in Brazil over the weekend. Rains linger in Mato Grosso early this week, aiding safrinha corn growth. The main rains shift to Rio Grande do Sul next weekend,
stalling soy harvest but then shifting north into Center-South Brazil later next week to ensure
moisture remains adequate for safrinha corn growth. Brazil Robusta coffee remains unfavorably
dry. Brazil sugarcane rain events are frequent enough to keep moisture favorable for late crop
growth. Argentina is favorably dry for early corn harvest until Friday, but dry weather returns all
All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.