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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

* Overnight markets have corn -2, soybeans -4, wheat -1, crude oil -.74, dollar even, gold -10.0 and the Dow -70.
* Grain markets generally lower on profit taking, weaker Brazil currency and lower Chinese soy futures.
* Wheat ratings in Texas 46% G/E vs 42% last week. Kansas 56% G/E vs 56% last week. Oklahoma 67% G/E vs 66% last week.
* February NOPA crush report out this morning. Average estimate for crush at 139.9 mln bu vs 150.4 in Jan and 146.9 a year ago.
* Monday funds bought 10,000 corn, 2,500 wheat and were even on soybeans.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

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In the U.S., showers were more than expected in eastern NE/southern and western IA/far northern MO and near the KS/NE border in the past day and also reached southern IN/OH/eastern ND as well as a few spots in the Mid-Atlantic. Showers will scatter across the upper Midwest in the next few days but will be most significant around the Great Lakes into tomorrow. Showers will otherwise be limited this week, with late-week activity more limited in the Plains and mainly focusing near the Gulf Coast. The drying will aid wet Delta fields, but a wetter pattern at the middle of next week and another rain event in the 11 to 15 day will still hinder draining and keep corn seeding a bit slow despite warm temperatures. Delta flooding risks are limited in the next ten days but could occur in localized areas again in the 11 to 15 day. Wetter trends in the C. Plains in the 6 to 10 day will aid moisture supplies, but the driest hard red winter wheat areas in the S. Plains will largely miss relief through the next 15 days. This will allow dryness concerns to build for about 40% of the belt. Cool temperatures late this week pose no damage threat to wheat in the region. Pacific Northwest wheat will see favorable 6 to 15 day showers aid moisture further.

In the South America, rain (.25 to 1.25″) favored southern/western Mato Grosso, northeast Mato Grosso do Sul. Goias, and central Sao Paulo in Brazil yesterday. Showers still benefit Mato Grosso in the next 3 days, aiding drier safrinha corn areas. Rains shift back to the south late in the weekend, temporarily stalling soy harvest. Rains later next week favor sugar/coffee and aid late development but remain light in moisture-stressed Robusta coffee areas. Argentina had showers confined to southern fringes of the corn/soy belt yesterday. Notable rains hold off until Friday, when showers slow early harvest. However, drier weather returns for the following week, ensuring that fields drain and keeping harvest interruptions limited.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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