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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

* Overnight markets have corn even, soybeans -1/2, wheat -1, crude oil +60, dollar -.30, gold +1.0 and the Dow +100.
* Mixed overnight trade on anticipation of tomorrow’s USDA reports with fund buying off-setting farmer selling.
* Continued delays in Delta corn planting may have some acres switching to soybeans.
* A survey of country elevator managers showed an average of 26% more old crop corn inventory and 20% more old crop soybean than a year ago on this date.
* Trade expectations for the Prospective Plantings report tomorrow at 11 CT; corn at 89.9 mln acres vs 87.9 mln last year, soybeans at 83.0 mln acres vs 82.6 mln last year and all wheat at 51.7 mln acres vs 54.6 mln last year.
* Yesterday funds bought 9,000 corn, 8,000 soybeans and 8,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

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In the U.S., widely scattered showers were mostly limited to ND, far northern SD, MN, central WI, southwest/eastern NE, northern IA, and the Gulf Coast in the past day. A storm system will bring showers to the northern/far eastern Plains in the next day, with activity then tracking across the northern/eastern Midwest and South on Thursday/Friday. The rains will slow seeding progress in southern corn areas, but any flooding in the Delta will be localized. Drier weather then aids fieldwork
through much of next week in most of the Delta, with the next notable storm in the 11 to 15 day. However, the Midwest has trended cooler/slightly wetter next week and will see minor interruptions to fieldwork on a more frequent basis. Snow cover will protect the coldest spots around the Great Lakes from wheat damage in the 6 to 10 day. While some guidance remains wetter in the 6 to 15 day for the S. Plains, our outlook continues to focus the best chance for rain on the central/southeast
Plains in the 11 to 15 day. This would leave the southwest 40% of hard red wheat vulnerable to a return of expanding dryness concerns and occasional heat (low 90s possible at times in TX/OK). The 16 to 30 day continues to trend wetter in the S. Plains and could offer some needed moisture, particularly late in the period.

In South America, Brazil saw rains (.25 to 1″, locally 2″) in southern Minas Gerais/northern Sao Paulo/northeast Mato Grosso do Sul/Mato Grosso yesterday. Showers will be very limited across Brazil over the next 10 days, enhancing first-crop corn/soy harvest pace. Safrinha corn sees soil moisture decline, leading to potential moisture shortages that focus on MGDS by mid-April. The favorably dry pattern for Argentina corn/soy harvest finally ends, as rains cross the belt this weekend. Additional rains are likely next week and raise concerns for localized flooding in the northeast 1/3 of the belt.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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