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Morning Outlook


Overnight Highlights

* Overnight markets have corn -1 1/4, soybeans +1 1/2, wheat -1-2, crude oil -1.00, dollar -.15, gold +2.0 and the Dow -20.
* Mixed overnight trade. Soybeans supported by concerns over wet harvest weather in Argentina and thoughts the funds may have more to buy. Planting window for corn looks to be opening up.
* This afternoon’s CFTC report will be watched closely to see how much long soy has been added and how much short corn has been cleared out as of Tuesday afternoon.
* NOPA crush out this morning. Expectation is for a jump up from last month but still off from a year ago March.
* World stock markets generally lower this morning.
* Yesterday funds sold 8,000 soybeans, 3,000 wheat and bought 5,000 corn.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


In the U.S., showers were mainly in northern MT, central ND, southern Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, northwest SD, MS, northern LA, far southeast AL, and southern GA in the past day. Expanding Plains rainfall through the weekend (and lingering into the first 1/2 of next week) will bring substantial moisture to the entire hard red winter wheat belt and is also reaching spring wheat in the N. Plains/southern Canada. This will be timely for jointing winter wheat and to aid newly seeded spring wheat, although localized flooding will occur from totals of 5 to 9″ in parts of central/southwest NE, central KS, western OK, and central TX. Widespread rains also occur for similar areas in the 11 to 15 day. The rains will slow spring wheat seeding but will not be a major concern. Warm temperatures and limited rain will also aid Midwest seeding progress in the next 10 days, with fieldwork interruptions slowly shifting across the western 1/4 of the belt from the weekend through the middle of next week before scattering along the OH River. Rains will also slow Delta seeding again in the 6 to 10 day, with both the western Midwest and Delta picking up 11 to 15 day rains. However, flooding risks are low, and planting should proceed in between events. Drier conditions will prevail through the balance of the month in most of the eastern 1/4 of the corn belt.

In South America, Argentina was mostly dry yesterday. Widespread weekend showers keep harvest stalled. Heavy rains (3-6″) focus on Santa Fe and Entre Rios in the northeast 1/4 of belt, where localized flooding is possible. The southwest 1/2 of the belt will be in a drier pattern next week to allow harvest, but northeast areas will still have enough showers to keep fieldwork stalled. Brazil rains (.25 to 1.25″) lingered in the northwest 1/4 of the safrinha corn belt yesterday. Minimal rains over the next 10 days allow stress to expand to nearly 1/2 of the belt. Showers are likely in the 11 to 15 day, slowing yield losses.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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