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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +2 ½, soybeans +3, wheat mixed, crude oil +.45, dollar -.17, gold -6.0 and the Dow +45.
  • Active trade overnight with generally supportive markets on continued speculative money flow, higher energies and weather uncertainty providing support.
  • Corn planting progress came in close to expectations at 30% compared to last week at 13% and last year at 16%.  Soy progress was seen at 3% compared to last year at 2%. Spring wheat was 42% planted compared to last year at 50%.
  • USDA crop conditions in winter wheat showed 59% G/E, up 2 points from last week.
  • EU crop monitor MARS bumped up its estimate of the 2016 EU soft wheat yield to 6.11 tons/HA from 5.96 tons/HA.
  • Australian weather bureau said 7 of 8 models they follow show conditions will bring La Nina by September. They left their chance of La Nina at 50%.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In the U.S., snow lingered near the Saskatchewan/Alberta border and into northern MT in the past day, with rains favoring southwest ND, western parts of the NE Panhandle, central/southwest MI, northern OH, far northeast IN, and a few spots near the NE/KS border. Most areas remained favorably dry for fieldwork, but the seeding slows in the central/southern Midwest and Delta through early next week. The best rain chances in the western Midwest will be tonight/tomorrow and this

weekend, while the eastern Midwest/Delta pick up rain Wednesday/Thursday and Sunday/Monday. Another system will also favor the Delta and near the OH River next Tuesday/Wednesday. Locally 2 to 4”+ rainfall with each event will bring isolated flooding (main risks in southern Midwest/Delta), but notable wetness concerns are unlikely. While not completely dry, seeding opportunities improve from late in the 6 to 10 day into the 11 to 15 day, as the wettest weather focuses farther west. Fairly

widespread rain on Thursday/Friday and again in the 11 to 15 day as well as showers in the south early next week will maintain favorable yield potential for hard red winter wheat. While the 6 to 10 day remains cool, there are no frost threats in either the Plains or Midwest. Spring wheat seeding improves after the next two to three days in the N. Plains/Canada.

 

In South America, Argentine rains (.25 to .50”) fell across the north 1/2 of the corn/soy belt yesterday. Drier weather now settles in for the next 10 days, allowing harvest to slowly recover. More limited showers in the 11 to 15 day should further aid progress. Colder conditions over the next 10 days are not strong enough for frost in double-crop soy areas. Brazil rains (.25 to 1”, locally 2.5”) fell across the south 1/2 of the corn belt yesterday and will expand into the northwest corner of the belt today. The northeast 1/3 of the corn belt still lacks adequate moisture and will see stress linger in the next 2 weeks.

 

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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