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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn even, soybeans -4, wheat +1-5, crude oil +.05, dollar +.95, gold +9.0 and the Dow -136.
  • Grains mixed overnight on anticipation of dryer weather to come for Midwest planting and Argentine harvest.
  • Export sales from the USDA will be out this morning.
  • CME Group announced their first quarter total average daily volume reached a record 16.9 mln contracts.
  • Cash cattle bids have started this week in the south at $124 – yet to attract sellers. Carcass weights for the week of April 9th showed a 4 lb decline in steer weights. This is a seasonal trend but still 9 lb above last year.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In the U.S., thundershowers stretched from northwest to southeast across the Midwest and also reached a few spots in the northeast Delta and Deep South in the past day. Favored areas included parts of central/southeast SD, central/far northeast NE, southwest MN, northwest IA, central/far northeast IL, southern IN, KY, northeast/southern LA, west-central MS, and northern NC. Lingering showers in the northern/eastern Midwest dissipate today, but weekend showers still return to much of

the central/southern Midwest and Delta (mostly .50 to 1.5”). Midwest showers are then very limited for the rest of next week, with the Delta also trending drier after showers move through the south on Monday/Tuesday. This will offer a good chance for significant seeding progress ahead of the next notable rain chance that favors the northern/western Midwest in the first 1/2 of the 11 to 15 day. Light frost will remain confined to the foothills of the central/northern Rockies and the Great Lakes

with the current cool pattern, which moderates next week. Near-term rains will offer additional improvement to Plains hard red winter wheat yields from late Thursday through early Saturday. Spring wheat seeding interruptions should remain limited to mainly SD/MT during the next two weeks, while relief for recently dry WA/OR wheat is limited with a 6 to 10 day event.

 

In South America, Argentina was dry yesterday, with lows this morning in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Unseasonably cold air lingers for 2 more nights, but frost threats remain minimal for double-crop soy. Mostly dry weather has been extended out to May 10, further aiding corn/soy harvest and ending wetness damage threats. Brazil corn/soy was mostly dry yesterday. Dryness for the next 10 days aids late soy harvest, but moisture stress will remain in the northeast 1/3 of the safrinha corn belt (especially when heat builds back in next week). 11 to 15 day rains still benefit the southwest half of the corn belt.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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