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Morning Outlook


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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +1 ½, soybeans +3-5, wheat even, crude oil +1.30, dollar +.48, gold +7.0 and the Dow +54.
  • Fund buying in soybeans off continued loss concerns in Argentina have the markets higher overnight. USDA export sales out this morning will contribute to the trade’s tone today. Both crude and the dollar index higher overnight.
  • The KS wheat tour estimated the Kansas wheat yield at 49.3 bpa vs 34.5 last year and a five year average of 35.9 bu.
  • FC Stone lowered their estimate for Brazil’s second crop corn to 49.8 mln mt, down from last month’s estimate of 56.6 mln.
  • The USDA will release their May supply and demand report which will include their first estimates for 16/17.
  • Yesterday funds bought 7,000 soybeans, 1,000 wheat and sold 8,500 corn.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


In the U.S., showers favored central/southwest MI, far north-central IN, central KY in the past day. Lingering showers exit the far eastern corn belt today, with most areas remaining favorably dry for fields to dry and planting to accelerate. Showers re-turn to the northern/far western Midwest in the latter 1/2 of the weekend. The most widespread and frequent Midwest rains then occur between Monday and Friday, slowing fieldwork in much of the belt but posing little in the way of flooding threats. Additional showers occur in the 11 to 15 day after a brief break next weekend, favoring the western Midwest. Already wet fields in the western 1/4 of the corn/soy belt will likely be impacted greatest by planting delays, with near to above normal rain continuing into the 16 to 30 day for the central/southwest Midwest. Delta rains will not be as frequent as the Midwest but will also encounter occasional interruptions to fieldwork. Showers will be adequate to maintain favorable Plains winter wheat yields, as frequent opportunities favor northern/eastern parts of the belt. Spring wheat seeding will encounter minor interruptions from western Canada into the northwest Plains early next week and again in the 11 to 15 day, but only MT is likely to end up wetter than normal. More rain than expected aided OR wheat in the past day, improving heading conditions.


In South America, Argentina was dry yesterday. Light showers develop today and linger through the weekend, favoring the southern 1/3 of the corn/soy belt. Shower potential is more limited next week, with only isolated activity allowing most areas to make headway with the delayed harvest. Brazil was mostly dry yesterday and will remain so today. Showers increase in the southern 1/3 of the corn belt this weekend, only extending slightly farther north next week. Flooding is possible in Parana, where up to 6” is likely by early next week. The northeast 1/3 of safrinha corn remains dry, with stress ongoing.


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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