Home Market Market Watch Morning Outlook

Morning Outlook


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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -2 ½, soybeans -10, wheat -1, crude oil -.43, dollar +.15, gold +5.0 and the Dow -63.
  • Lower trade overnight on profit taking. Cold weekend weather but drier outlook for much of the Midwest should give a return to planting.
  • Today is the last day for May grain contract trade.
  • NOPA April crush will be out Monday with the market anticipating 147.7 mln bu vs 150.3 a year earlier.
  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates harvest of soybeans at 51% complete vs last year at 68%.
  • Port workers in Argentina’s Rosario port plant to strike today for an indefinite period.
  • Brazil’s Vice President officially took over as acting President during Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment trial. The Brazilian currency is holding in at 10 month highs.
  • Talk that China bought several cargoes this week of Argentine and Brazil soybeans for June/August shipment and maybe some US soybeans.
  • A Chinese news outlet posted a story about the poor quality of Chinese corn reserves creating hog production issues because of the toxins in the corn.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


In the U.S., scattered showers favored parts of southeast MO, central IN, eastern MI, northern OH, central KY, northeast AR, northern/western AL, central MS, central/southeast NC, central SC, central TX, and southwest Alberta in the past day. Patchy showers move quickly through the Midwest into early Saturday, with scattered storms from Monday night/Tuesday in the southern belt. However, the rest of next week has reverted to a drier pattern for the Midwest, aiding corn/soy planting progress. Rains will return in the 11 to 15 day, particularly in the south/west. Cold weekend temperatures occur, but most guidance still limits temperatures at or below freezing to ND/northern MN/upper Great Lakes to avert notable damage threats. Rains will stall late fieldwork in much of the Delta next week, with additional activity in the northern Delta in the 11 to 15 day. Plains winter wheat will pick up extensive coverage in the first 1/2 of next week once again, maintaining high yield potential. Spring wheat seeding should near completion in the next ten days in the N. Plains, while a wetter 6 to 15 day for the Canadian Prairies will hinder planting but benefit moisture. The driest spots in the northwest 30% of the belt should be trimmed for now but may not be full eliminated.


In South America, Argentina showers (.10 to .35”) were confined to the southwest corner of the belt yesterday. Showers this weekend are light and widely scattered. A few more light showers are possible mid and late next week, but harvest delays generally remain minor. 11 to 15 day shower potential has diminished. Brazil rains (.25 to .75”, locally 1.5”) were confined to the central corn belt yesterday. Showers early next week and again the following weekend aid late pollination and filling corn, including the drier northern 1/3 of the belt. Scattered showers in sugarcane areas in the next 10 days slow harvest.


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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