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Morning Outlook


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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -1 ½, soybeans +3, wheat mixed, crude oil +.07, dollar even, gold even and the Dow -10.
  • Mixed trade overnight on quiet news. Soybeans continuing to try provide leadership.
  • Planting progress on corn was reported at 75% complete vs 64% last week and 70% on average. Corn emergence came in at 43% vs 34% on average.
  • Soybean planting progress showed 36% complete vs 32% on average. Emergence was 10% vs 9% on average.
  • Spring wheat planting 89% complete vs 64% average. Winter wheat rating at 62% good to excellent vs 45% average.
  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush showed April crush at 147.6 mln bu compared to the trade expectation of 147.7 mln bu.
  • Monday funds bought 6,000 corn and were even soybeans and wheat.  

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


In the U.S., thundershowers favored central/southeast KS, central/northeast OK, the TX/OK border, southern LA, southern MO, southern IL, and northwest KY in the past day. Showers will scatter across the southern OH Valley and northern Delta today, with another event arriving for the southern 1/4 of the Midwest and much of the Delta from Thursday night through early Saturday. This will continue to hinder fieldwork in already delayed areas in central/southern parts of IN/OH, but dry weather aids seeding in the northern 2/3 of the belt (including slow spots around the Great Lakes) until rains return to the western Midwest on Monday. Minor interruptions to fieldwork occur most frequently in MO/KS/NE/western IA in the 6 to 15 day but are of little concern given generally good seeding progress thus far. A drier break occurs in the OH Valley from Sun-day through Thursday before interruptions return in the 11 to 15 day. The rains in the Delta will slow late seeding this week, but a drier 6 to 10 day limits concerns. Widespread rain in the S. Plains through Thursday will help to maintain high winter wheat yield potential but will also hinder early maturing wheat, with additional 6 to 15 day rains in the central/southeast Plains. N. Plains spring wheat seeding will finish up this week before rains return, while widespread rains late this week and this weekend in western Canada and in the 6 to 15 day for southern Canada will slow fieldwork but improve moisture.


In South America, Argentina was dry yesterday. Rains remain minimal for much of the next two weeks (the best chance in the northeast 1/4 of the belt late next week), maintaining favorable corn/ soy harvest. Brazil rains (.25 to 1”, locally 2”) scattered across northern corn/sugar areas yesterday and linger this week, shifting to the south this weekend. Filling corn will benefit, but spotty north-ern stress persists. Sugarcane harvest will be slow this week but should improve next week.


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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