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Morning Outlook


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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -2, soybeans -11-14, wheat -1-3, crude oil +.15, dollar +.24, gold -10.0 and the Dow +88.
  • Lower Chinese soybean and soy meal market coupled with the stronger dollar weighing on soybeans overnight.
  • USDA planting progress put corn at 86% complete vs 85% average for the date with soybeans at 56% complete vs 52% on average.
  • Winter wheat good/excellent ratings continued at 62% vs the average rating of 44%.
  • Yesterday funds sold 10,000 soybeans, 3,000 wheat and bought 8,000 corn.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


In North America, rains favored E. ND, SW & C. MN, W. IA, E. NE, N. & E. KS, E. OK, E. TX panhandle, NE CO, and W. Sask. yesterday. Rains this week focus on the W. Midwest, C. & SE Plains and slowly expand into the E. Midwest allowing areas of most notable corn/soy seeding delays in IN/MI/OH to play catch up for another 2-3 days. The heavier rains are likely to focus in E. NE and W. IA hampering soybean seeding and very late corn planting. That area will only get a 2 day break in rains next weekend before a new rain event mirrors the one this week, favoring the west and only slowly expanding to the east. This should allow eastern areas to make up a good deal of the planting lag but keep soy seeding slow in the west. Del-ta rains remain limited over the next 10 days allowing soy and cotton seeding to advance rapidly to completion in much of the area. Southeast cotton/soy planting improves with a week of dry weather before widespread rains arrive late 6-10 day. Showers in the Plains winter wheat belt will diminish in the southwest the rest of this week allowing some improvement in harvest but southeast areas remain unfavorably wet. All areas see more rain delays next week across the south but the rains benefit heading wheat in the C. Plains. Showers over the next 10 days benefit N. Plains spring wheat growth with seeding nearly completed. Rains continue to ease dryness in the Can. Prairies in the next 10 days ensuring favorable wheat germination.


In South America, Argentina remains dry this week accelerating corn/soy harvest. Rains are still likely to scatter across drier wheat areas early next week aiding germination. Brazil corn/ sugarcane were dry yesterday. Sugarcane harvest improves with dryness this week but rain delays next weekend extend out through much of next week. Early safrinha corn harvest in the north will see minimal rain delays in the next 2 weeks, while showers in the south still aid late filling.


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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