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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -2 ¾, soybeans -4-5, wheat +1-3, crude oil -.60, dollar -.47, gold +3.0 and the Dow -61.
  • Lower markets overnight off friendly USDA ratings and cooperative weather forecast.
  • China’s Dalian Exchange has soybeans higher but corn and soy meal lower.
  • USDA reported corn planting 94% complete vs 92% average for this date. Corn Good/Excellent at 72% vs 74% last year and 72% average for the date.
  • USDA reported soybeans 73% complete planting vs 66% average for the date. The first condition rating for soybeans will be next week.
  • Winter wheat G/E jumped a percent to 63% vs the long term average of 43%, Spring wheat was 79% G/E vs 74% on average.
  • Yesterday funds sold 11,000 corn, 8,000 soybeans and 10,000 wheat.
  • Talk out there that China bought a cargo of US soy for August and they are shopping for new crop beans.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In North America, showers favored parts of southeast Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, northwest/eastern ND, southeast MN, central/western WI, central/eastern IA, northern/central IL, northeast/southern OK, central/northeast TX, and southeast NC in the past day. Patchy showers shift into the eastern Midwest today, with a second front bringing scattered rains from Friday into the weekend and favoring the northern 1/4 of the Midwest. Otherwise, showers are limited in the Midwest until next Thursday/Friday, allowing late corn/soy seeding to progress with limited interruptions. Showers do then expand across much of the belt by the end of the 15-day period to aid soil moisture, although drier risks do exist in the 11 to 15 day if eastern cooling proves to be stronger and shifts the storm track farther south. The 16 to 30 day outlook continues to favor an active Midwest/Delta/N. Plains/southern Canada storm track, with the western Plains/Southeast driest. Rains will cause some

interruptions to fieldwork in the South during the rest of this week, but a break also aids progress there next week. Rains also ease in the S. Plains wheat during the next two weeks to aid early wheat harvest, although wet weather lingers this week in TX/southern OK (including very heavy rain in central/eastern TX). West TX cotton seeding should also improve. Rains will remain adequate to support early spring wheat growth in the N. Plains/Canadian Prairies during the next two weeks.

 

In South America, Brazil rains (.25 to .50”) were limited yesterday in the corn/sugar belt. Showers

pick up over next week and hamper early harvest, with localized flooding in the southern 1/2 of corn

and 3/4 of sugar. The main corn harvest in the northern 1/2 of corn remains favorably dry, and

southern areas turn drier at the middle of next week. Argentina rains (.25 to 1”, locally 2.5”) benefit

the southern 1/2 of wheat yesterday. Light rain will aid the northern 1/2 of wheat by the weekend.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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