Morning Outlook

Overnight Highlights

• Overnight markets have corn +2, soybeans +18, wheat +2, crude oil -.06, dollar -.76, gold +20.0 and the Dow -47.
• Grain markets are higher this morning with Soybeans leading the way because of more possible activity with China buying and stronger cash markets.
• Informa will be out with their new monthly crop estimates today at 10:30 am.
• USDA export sales this morning showed corn at 1.32 mmt for 15/16 and 128,900 mt for 16/17.  Good sale and within the expected range.  Soybeans were at 309,400 mt for 15/16 and 736,700 mt for 16/17.  Also a good sale and slightly above the expected range.  Wheat sales were also positive at 107,400 mt for 15/16 and 385,000 mt for 16/17 crop year and at the top end of the range.
• China is expected to auction off 3 mmt of corn today.
• Thursday funds were estimated buyers of 21k soybeans, 9,000 meal, 7,000 wheat, and 2,000 corn.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In North America, showers favored central/eastern SD, west-central/southern OK, central/northeast TX, central/western LA, southeast IN, northern KY, and northeast SC in the past day. Scattered showers exit the northwest Midwest after tomorrow and the OH Valley/Delta after the weekend, with patchy showers scattering across mainly the upper Midwest next Thursday/ Friday and another front crossing the belt late next weekend. However, enough breaks are likely to limit any late corn/soy seeding concerns. Highs do peak in the low to mid 90s for mainly southern NE/MO/KS/southern IL/South next Thursday to Saturday but then ease again. Broader rains return to much of the belt in the 11 to 15 day, with most guidance wetter than our forecast. The 16 to 30 day then drier in the southern Midwest though, with an active storm track in the northwest 2/3 of the Midwest. Given recent moisture deficits in OH/IN/MI/MS/AL/southern TN and the risk for some gaps in coverage this weekend and in the 11 to 15 day, these will be the areas at most risk for any developing moisture shortages. The CFS model also shows hotter conditions in the 16 to 30 day, but the European model is preferred and shifts the most notable heat back to the western U.S. Plains wheat harvest will improve in the next two weeks, and rain chances in the next two weeks are ad-equate to meet spring wheat needs in most of the N. Plains/Canadian Prairies.

In South America, Brazil rains (.25 to 1.5”) fell in the central 1/3 of the corn and 2/3 of sugar yester-day. Showers in the next five days hamper early harvest in the southern 1/2 of corn and most of the sugar. More potential rains by next weekend could hamper recovery. The northern 1/2 of corn remains favorably dry for harvest. Argentina rains (.10 to .50”) were confined to the southern 1/4 of wheat yesterday. Rains benefit wheat this week-end. Drier trends next week aid corn/soy harvest.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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