Morning Outlook

Overnight Highlights

• Overnight markets have corn +8, soybeans +19-22, wheat +3-8, crude oil +.55, dollar +.11, gold +2.0 and the Dow +32.
• Higher grain markets overnight on the forecast for heat moving into the corn-belt later this week and chatter of more US soy business due to Argentine problems.
• Planting progress and crop conditions will be out this afternoon with the trade looking for soybeans close to 84% planted vs 81% for the date and for the first soy condition ratings to be around 70% G/E vs 69% for the average.
• Corn condition rating is expected to be around 72% good/excellent vs 71% for the average.
• Europe’s wet weather wheat woes wain this week but are anticipated to return next week.  
• Commitment of Traders report showed Managed Money had a jump of corn ownership of 66,102 contracts to a net of +130,798, a return to buying soybeans up 6,523 to a net long of +208,696 and again added to wheat shorts by -1,355 to a net short of -90,991 in Chicago.  

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In North America, weekend favored the eastern Dakotas, northwest/far southeast MN, central WI, northeast IA, LA, southeast/northern AR, southeast MO, south-central IL, central IN, central/western OH, southeast MI, southern KY, TN, MS, southern AL, eastern GA, southwest SC, and central/northeast NC. Showers will be limited this week to a few spots in the eastern/ far northern Midwest late Wednesday through Friday, with heat building by late in the week. Highs peak in the 90s for much of the Midwest/South, with mid 90s reaching as far north as parts of the Dakotas/MN/MO/southwest IL/NE/KS by Friday/ Saturday. 90s contract back to the southwest Midwest by late in the weekend and moderate further by Tuesday. While still a modestly warmer pattern through the balance of June, scattered 6 to 15 day storms do return to the northern/eastern Midwest intermittently due to the lessened ridging, aiding corn/soy growth. Rains are most limited in the southern 1/4 of the Midwest and the South in the 16 to 30 day, and this will need to be watched for slipping moisture supplies. Severe heat is not expected, limiting stress for now though. While a few interruptions are possible in the S. Plains and Delta wheat areas during the 6 to 10 day from thundershowers, an otherwise limited rainfall pattern will allow for improving harvest conditions for the balance of the month. Rains should continue to support spring wheat conditions in the N. Plains/Canadian Prairies.

In South America, Brazil rains (.25 to 1.25”, locally 2.5”) fell in the central 1/2 of the corn belt and most of the sugarcane belt over the weekend. Showers linger early this week and then contract to the southern fringes for the remainder of the next two weeks. Argentina rains (.25 to 1.25”) favored the northern 1/2 of the wheat belt over the weekend, aiding germination. Mainly dry conditions for the next two weeks ensure that corn/soy harvest is not impeded.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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