Home Market Market Watch Morning Outlook

Morning Outlook


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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -1, soybeans +2-6, wheat mixed, crude oil +.60, dollar even, gold -6.0 and the Dow +44.
  • Mixed grain trade overnight. Crop ratings came in yesterday a little better than expected and extended forecast cools with some rain after this weekend’s heat passes.
  • Planting progress showed soybeans at 83% complete compared to 77% average for the date. Conditions were 72% good to excellent vs 67% for the date.
  • Corn conditions came in at 75% good to excellent vs 71% on average. Spring wheat was 79% good to excellent vs 73% on average.
  • Trade expecting a friendly USDA supply/demand report Friday. Analysts expect Corn 15/16 ending stocks at 1.77 bln bu and forecast 16/17 ending stockpiles of 2.13 bln. Expectations are for 15/16 soybean ending stocks at 385 mln bu and a drop to 289 mln bu for 16/17 ending.
  • Yesterday funds were buyers of 15,000 corn, 10,000 soybeans and 6,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast



In North America, showers favored far southwest KS, far southeast CO, western parts of the OK Panhandle, northwest parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern OH, southeast NC, SC, GA, and far southeast AL in the past day. Patchy thundershowers will occur in the northern/eastern Midwest from late Wednesday through the rest of the week, favoring northern IL, northern/ eastern IN, and southwest OH. Heat builds late in the week in the Midwest/South, peaking Friday/Saturday and then retracting to the southwest corner of the Midwest and Delta by Sunday/Monday before moderating further. Highs will rise into the 90s, with the best shot at mid 90s in NE/KS/MO/SD/western MN/southwest IL/Deep South. The best chance for rain arrives next Monday to Wednesday and favors the northern Midwest and Delta with welcome moisture for corn/soy growth. Showers also favor the northern Midwest in the 11 to 15 day but are more limited, with parts of MO/southern IL/southern IN/KY at most risk to be driest through the next two weeks. While both models do hint at some moderation just beyond the period, the 16 to 30 day guidance shows better agreement to the warmer side for the Midwest, with slipping moisture supplies most likely in the southeast 1/2 of the belt. Forecast confidence does remain very low given relatively poor recent 16 to 30 day model performance, but possible corn risks are elevated compared to yesterday heading into early July. Wheat concerns remain low.


In South America, Brazil rains (.25 to 1.25”) fell in 1/4 of the corn and 3/4 of the sugarcane yester-day. Light showers linger today in the southeast 1/4 of corn and much of sugarcane today. For the remainder of the next 2 weeks, harvest improves notably, with rains confined to southern fringes of the belt. Argentina was dry yesterday. Mainly dry conditions for the next 10 days allow unimpeded corn/soy harvest. Showers may return to the northeast 1/4 in the 11 to 15 day, slowing harvest.


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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