Morning Outlook

Overnight Highlights

• Overnight markets have corn -5, soybeans -7, wheat -3-5, crude oil -.60, dollar +.30, gold -1.0 and the Dow -55.
• Lower markets overnight on outlook for more moisture in the forecast and profit-taking ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report.
• Brazil will be out with their monthly crop report this morning.
• Early reports on wheat harvest out of Kansas indicating better yield than last year with good test weight and protein.
• Yesterday’s EIA report showed production 46k bbls per day higher than last week and stocks 544k lower than the previous week.
• Talk that China is shopping soybeans from the PNW.
• Yesterday funds were buyers of 20,000 soybeans, 10,000 corn and 7,500 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In North America, showers favored northern/southeast Alberta, southeast Saskatchewan, north-central MT, east-central CO, northeast IA, and south-central/southeast MN in the past day. Patchy showers will continue in parts of the northern 1/3 of the Midwest during the rest of this week, but the primary rain opportunity arrives from Monday to Thursday. Models remain quite supportive, with better agreement today regarding placement. Favored areas (.50 to 2.5”) include NE, southeast SD, north-east KS, much of IA, southern MN, much of IL, southern/western IN, and southwest OH before heading into the TN Valley/ Southeast. This should aid moisture for about 3/4 of the corn/soy belt. 11 to 15 day showers then still become more limited. However, the GFS does pose a wetter risk in the eastern Midwest and Delta, as it nearly stalls the 6 to 10 day system to pro-long the rain event. Heat builds during the rest of this week in the corn belt, with the hottest day on Saturday. 90s are lik ely, with the hottest conditions in parts of MO, western IL, far southern IA, KS, NE, and SD. Notable heat retracts to the south-west Midwest early next week and then eases Tuesday, with 80s to low 90s for the balance of the 15-day period. The 16 to 30 day outlook remains warmer than normal, with the driest concerns in the southern 1/2 of the corn belt. Spring wheat conditions will remain mostly stable, with winter wheat harvest encountering only minor 6 to 10 day interruptions.

In South America, Brazil corn/sugar areas were dry yesterday, with the coldest spots in the upper 30s in the southern corn belt. Dry conditions aid harvest in the next 10 days, with 11 to 15 day showers in the southern 1/4. Frost is limited to far southern corn, mainly Sunday. Argentina corn/soy harvest will see limited delays in the next two weeks. Brief light showers reach the south late next week, with more persistent 11 to 15 day rain in the northeast 1/4 in the 11 to 30 day.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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