Home Market Market Watch Morning Outlook

Morning Outlook


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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +11-13, soybeans +13-16, wheat +5-6, crude oil -.54, dollar -.10, gold +12.0 and the Dow -57.
  • Higher grain markets overnight. Weather worries coupled with the supportive USDA report and ongoing fund buying.
  • Trade looking for USDA to show corn conditions at 74 to 76% G/E vs 75% last week and 74% on average. Soybeans are expected to be 71 to 73% G/E vs 72% last week and 68% average for the week.
  • Commitment of Traders report showed as of Tuesday Managed Money added 77,169 to their corn net long now at 207,967, Soybean long now at 210,051 up 1,355 and they trimmed their net short wheat by -37,671 to -53,320.
  • Celeres lowered their Brazil 15/16 second crop corn estimate to 49.5 mln mt which is -6.2% off their previous estimate – noting that the rains that returned were insufficient for the crop.
  • Friday funds bought 9,000 soybeans and sold 9,000 corn, 7,500 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast



In North America, showers favored northern MT, northern/western ND, south-central/southeast MN, northern/east-central IA, western WI, southeast IN, southwest OH, southwest/eastern TX, southern/northwest OK, western KS, eastern CO, western NE, Manitoba, and central/southeast Saskatchewan during the weekend. Highs were in the 90s for the corn belt, but mid

to upper 90s largely focused on SD, southwest MN, southern/western IA, NE, KS, southwest IL, and MO. Showers on Tuesday/Wednesday favor the northwest Midwest into the Great Lakes region. While intermittent shower chances exist in the 6 to 15 day, the pattern will overall become quieter in the corn belt. This will leave the southwest Midwest/northern Delta/Southeast at most risk for missing much of the rain in the next two weeks, allowing dryness to initially build in 1/3 of the corn

belt. Temperatures consistently run near to above normal in the next two weeks, but notable heat (mid to upper 90s) focuses on the southwest 1/4 of the corn belt through Thursday and again Monday. Otherwise, highs range from the 80s to low 90s. Shower potential improves a bit in the northern Delta/far southern Midwest in the 16 to 30 day, but about 1/2 of the belt remains

likely to average drier. Modestly warmer than normal temperatures also occur heading into early pollination, and the region will need to be watched for stronger pulses of heat than currently projected that would add more notable stress.


In South America, Brazil corn/sugar areas remain dry this week. Rains develop across the

southern 1/3 of the corn belt next week, slowing harvest. Weekend frost in the southern 10% of the

corn crop resulted in only isolated damage. Argentina was dry over the weekend, and corn/soy

harvest remains favored by the lack of rains in the next two weeks. Rain delays are more likely in the

16 to 30 day, but moisture is needed for the drier northeast 1/2 of the wheat belt.


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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