Home Market Market Watch Morning Outlook

Morning Outlook


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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +3, soybeans +12, wheat +5, crude oil +.80, dollar -.27, gold -12.0 and the Dow -16.
  • Grains higher overnight on weather concerns and questions over how much rain the corn-belt will realize in the extended forecast. Britain’s EU referendum vote next week will add anxiety to outside markets.
  • Yesterday’s corn export sales came in below expectations but this year is still running ahead of last year’s pace.
  • Brazil’s ag ministry announced yesterday that some GM corn varieties from the US will be approved for import soon.
  • The long fund positions will keep the market focused on the technical signals of the market on a day to day basis.
  • COT report on fund positions will be out this afternoon. Next week the trade will begin preparing for the June 30 acreage report.
  • Thursday funds sold 11,000 soybeans, 9,500 corn and 3,500 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast



In North America, thundershowers were limited but favored parts of southern MO, east-central KS, southern GA, central/far southeast AL, northeast NC, east-central MI, eastern OH, central/southwest ND, south-central Manitoba, central Saskatchewan, and northwest Alberta. Readings were well into the 90s across the South, with mid to upper 90s also noted in far southern IL, central/northwest MO, far southwest IA, KS, and southern NE. Scattered storms favor the far northwest Midwest into the weekend, with patchy activity extending southeastward into IA/IL on Monday. Two disturbances also scatter storms into the upper Midwest in the 6 to 10 day, with patchy activity also around the edge of the ridge in the 11 to 15 day. None of the rains are widespread, allowing moisture to slip in the corn belt. The driest areas thus far this month in parts of central OH, south-central MI, far northern IN, southwest IL, southern IA, northern MO, and perhaps a few spots in KS/NE would be at most risk to see the most notable deficits by month’s end. Rains do appear to start picking up in the Delta toward the end of the month to aid moisture. Hottest conditions (mid 90s to near 100) will focus on MO/southern NE/KS/southwest IL on Sunday/Monday and again at times in the late 6 to 10 and 11 to 15 day, but other areas are forecast to see mostly 80s to near 90. 16 to 30 day guidance has trended less hot for the corn belt today, although rain chances are still somewhat limited.


In South America, Brazil corn/sugar areas had showers in the far south last night. Rains remain limited to the southern 1/3 of the belt through early next week, then expanding and becoming heavier in the southern 2/3 to slow harvest progress. Showers become light and limited to the far south in the 11 to 15 day. Argentine corn/soy harvest is likely to remain mostly dry for the next two weeks. 16 to 30 day rains could ease dryness in the northeast 1/4 of wheat, but confidence is low


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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