Morning Outlook

Overnight Highlights

• Overnight markets have corn -9, soybeans -17, wheat -5, crude oil +.88, dollar -.61, gold -12.0 and the Dow +217.
• Weaker markets overnight on decent rain chances for the next week for much of the Midwest compared to the concerns going home Friday.
• Financial markets higher and the dollar sharply lower following a poll suggesting the UK will remain in the EU on this week’s referendum.
• Condition ratings will be out this afternoon with the trade expecting a slight decline.
• Friday’s COT report showed Managed Money Corn net long jumped more than 44k contracts to net long of 252,295. This is nearing the recent high in fund length from last July.
• China continues to buy US and Brazil soybeans for July-Sept delivery.
• Friday Funds bought 17,500 corn, 13,000 soybeans and 5,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In North America, weekend thundershowers favored northeast MT, northern/eastern ND, western MN, north-central/southeast SD, southwest/eastern NE, far northwest IA, central KS, north-central/southwest OK, west-central TX, LA, central/ southern MS, south-central GA, and southern SC. Highs were in the mid 90s to low 100s in southeast SD, NE, KS, and the Deep South on Friday but then moderated a bit. Showers through Thursday will scatter across the corn belt, with the best

chances from IA into the OH Valley at mid-week. While patchy activity will still occur, showers are otherwise relatively limited during the balance of the 15-day period in the corn belt, allowing moisture deficits to build. The driest areas are likely to be in parts of MI, southern IA, MO, southwest IL, and patchy sections of KS/southern NE (1/4 of the belt) given current moisture supplies. Heat will be most severe west of the corn belt, but the southwest Midwest (mainly MO/KS/NE) will be most prone to frequent days in at least the mid 90s through next Monday and again perhaps later in the 11 to 15 day. This will focus the greatest risk for corn losses on the drier spots in the southwest belt for now. The 16 to 30 day outlook remains modest with warmth and focuses the hottest weather west of the corn belt, although moisture deficits do appear likely to build further. Beneficial moisture starts to return across the South in the 11 to 15 day, which will be needed after a drier short-term outlook.

In South America, Brazil corn/sugar areas had showers in the far south over the weekend. Rains

remain limited to the southern 1/3 of the belt this week. Showers become even more limited the

following week aiding harvest progress. Argentina was mainly dry over the weekend and will remain

dry this week aiding corn harvest. Rains are likely to increase across much of the corn/wheat belt

this weekend improving moisture substantially for late wheat seeding but stalling corn harvest.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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