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Morning Outlook


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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -2, soybeans -6, wheat mixed, crude oil +.30, dollar +.95, gold +3.0 and the Dow +107.
  • Lower overnight trade in grains on weather maps less threatening in the short-term and squaring up ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report.
  • Average estimates for tomorrow’s USDA plantings report is for Corn at 92.8 mln acres vs the March estimate of 93.6 mln and last year at 87.9 mln. Soybeans estimated at 83.8 mln acres vs 82.2 in the March estimate and 82.6 last year.
  • A director of one of the largest corn industry groups in Argentina says he expects corn plantings in Argentina for 16/17 to rise 30% thanks to the elimination of their corn export tax. Corn plantings will begin in September.
  • On the export market, Argentine corn values moved below the US for the first time since early May.
  • Stats Canada will be out with their acreage estimates this morning.
  • Yesterday funds bought 6,000 soybeans and sold 7,000 corn and 1,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast


In North America, showers favored central/western NE, western KS, far eastern CO, the OK Panhandle, northeast parts of the TX Panhandle, central TX, southern LA, southern MS, southwest/eastern GA, eastern SC, NC, and southern Alberta in the past day. Highs were in the upper 60s northeast to 80s south in the Midwest yesterday, with mild conditions through the holiday weekend. Warming does occur for the rest of the 15-day period, with the best chance for frequent mid 90s or better in mainly MO/KS/NE. Highs otherwise will largely range from the upper 80s to low 90s in the corn belt. Both models have trend-ed wetter during the holiday weekend in the southern Midwest, as a potent disturbance now exits the C. Plains and heads east. There is the chance that models are tracking this system a bit too far north, but some of the best rain chances include dry spots in KS/MO/southern IL to ease stress on pollinating corn. Additional rain chances then scatter into the central/ southeast Midwest late in the 6 to 10 day and into the 11 to 15 day, with our current forecast keeping parts of MI, far north ern OH, west-central IL, central/far southeast IA, far northeast MO, and northeast SD at most risk for slipping moisture in the next two weeks. However, 16 to 30 day rains are forecast to favor the northwest Midwest, with the northeast 1/3 of the corn belt at most risk for heat/moisture stress to pollinating corn in late July.


In South America, Argentina rains (.10 to .50”) favored the southeast 1/3 of the wheat yesterday. It will be mostly dry until rains return this weekend to much of the belt, keeping corn harvest stalled. Drier weather all of next week should allow a slow upturn in corn harvest/wheat seeding. Brazil re-mains dry until showers cross the wheat belt early next week, easing dryness. Corn/sugarcane har-vest remains favorable, with just a few minor shower delays at the middle of next week.


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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