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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • No overnight markets of course and opening calls for corn are down 1-2, soybeans down 3-4, wheat steady.
  • Rains over the weekend hit some of the drier areas of the corn belt with totals ranging from 1 – 2.5 inches.  Current forecasts are looking like additional chances of rain and limited excessive heat.
  • US weekly export inspections for the week ending June 30th is estimated in a range of 12-15 Mil Bu of wheat, 7-12 Mil Bu of soybeans, and 34-39 Mil Bu of corn.
  • The US soybean load out pace is expected to dramatically increase in late July and August as China shifts its full attention to US soy load out.    

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In North America, notable weekend rains favored KS, east-central NE, MO, southwest IA, southern IL, KY, southern IN, southern OH, west-central MN, NC, southern GA, northwest MS, southeast AR, northern/eastern OK, northern TX, southeast CO, southern/northeast MT, and a few spots in the Dakotas. Other than some 90s in central SD yesterday, a cool pattern prevailed in the corn belt. Rain chances through Thursday will bring additional relief to much of the corn belt, with 6 to 15 day rains favoring the northwest Midwest. Parts of southeast IA/far west-central IL/far northeast MO/MI/northern OH and areas near the NE/KS border (15 to 20% of the Midwest) appear at most risk to see rain deficits build further, but the timely rains occurring in other spots and a lack of severe heat will aid pollinating corn. Highs will rise into the mid-90s in the southwest 1/4 of the Midwest on Wednesday/Thursday and again next Monday to Wednesday, but most other areas will see readings peak in the upper 80s to low 90s. The 16 to 30 day outlook has trended cooler since Friday (particularly in the western Midwest), with potential dry spots focusing on parts of the eastern Midwest. While patchy showers are possible in the Delta soy areas (mainly in the 6 to 10 day), dryness is expected to build in parts of AR/MS/LA, and hot temperatures will raise concerns for soy stress to increase. Rains continue to limit dry spots for U.S./Canada spring wheat.

In South America, Argentina rains (.25 to 1.25”, locally 3.5”) were mainly confined to the eastern 1/3 of corn/wheat in the past four days. Drier weather this week and only light showers in the eastern third of the belt next week allow corn harvest to make a little better progress. Brazil was dry, but rains this week bring relief to wheat and improve growth. Corn/sugarcane harvest remains favorable this week, with showers next week slowing progress in the southern third of the belt.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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