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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +2, soybeans -14, wheat +2, crude oil +.55, dollar even, gold -2.0 and the Dow -17.
  • Mixed trade in grains overnight as non-threatening weather weighs on soybeans while corn and soybeans find support after much of the risk premium has been removed.
  • USDA will be out next Tuesday for the July Crop Production and Supply/Demand report.
  • Chatter in the trade is working corn yield expectations past 170 bu per acre vs the current USDA estimate of 168 bu. Rains have reduced pollination risk in the Midwest but continued hot/dry August outlook maintains grain fill risk.
  • Yesterday funds sold 13,000 corn, 3,500 soybeans and 3,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In North America, thundershowers favored parts of central ND, central SD, southern MN, southern/eastern NE, northeast KS, central/western IA, northern/eastern MO, southern IL, southern IN, KY, and TN in the past day. Highs ranged from the upper 70s to near 90 in most of the Midwest yesterday. The overnight rain narrowed down dry spots in NE/IA/MO, while drier spots in the eastern Dakotas largely were short-changed. Showers into Friday will favor KS, MO, eastern IA, southeast MN, southwest WI, northern IL, and northern IN. This will leave a few spots in south-central NE, west-central IL, MI, northern OH, and the eastern Dakotas (10 to 15% of the Midwest) most likely to see moisture stress. Rains still stretch from northwest to southeast across the Midwest in the 6 to 10 day, while 11 to 15 day rains favor the upper Midwest and may trim back dry spots in ND and around the Great Lakes. Warmer temperatures return in the 6 to 15 day for the Midwest, including a warmer

11 to 15 day trend versus yesterday. However, this still limits mid 90s to mainly MO/KS/NE and leaves most of the Midwest with peak highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. The lack of more severe heat will limit concerns for pollinating corn, although warmer/drier conditions in the 16 to 30 day for the northeast 1/4 of the belt could still allow some stress. Hot/dry weather in the southern 1/3 of the Delta soy will also build stress this month, but near-term rains will ease concerns farther north.

 

In South America, Argentina was mostly dry yesterday. Light showers may slow corn harvest late

next week, but progress should be favorable until then. Brazil rains (.25 to .50”) were confined to the

northeast fringes of the wheat belt yesterday. Showers slowly expand across the wheat belt

next week, aiding growth. Corn/sugarcane harvest remains favorably dry until late next week. Even

then, rain only reaches the southern 1/4 of the corn belt, keeping the harvest pace favorable.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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