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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -7, soybeans -15, wheat -3, crude oil -.13, dollar -.09, gold +1.0 and the Dow +14.
  • Markets lower this morning after being higher overnight as the strongest Midwest heat has been delayed to peak Thurs-Sat. Both longs and shorts are nervous going into the weekend knowing the sensitivity the market will have to Sunday’s weather model runs.
  • Yesterday’s corn export sales came in above trade estimates. Putting the sales now at 99% of the total USDA estimate. Soybean sales came in below the trade estimate, but sales now equal 106% of the USDA estimate vs the five year average of 102%.
  • NOPA crush will be out this morning with an expectation for crush at 145.4 mln bu vs 152.2 mln in May.
  • Commitment of Traders report will be out this afternoon.
  • Thursday funds sold 17,000 soybeans, 9,500 corn and 3,500 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In North America, rains favored southern SD, southern KS, northeast/central AR, central/far western TN, west-central KY, northern AL, and northeast MT in the past day. Highs were in the upper 60s northwest to 80s south/east in the Midwest yesterday. Showers scatter from northwest to southeast across the corn belt, mainly Sunday to Tuesday. Favored areas include much of the Dakotas, central NE, northern/eastern IA, southern MN, southern WI, northern IL, and northern IN. The addition-al showers and a lack of notable heat will continue to provide very good pollination conditions through the first 1/2 of next week in the corn belt. Heat does peak next Thursday to Saturday in the belt, with mid to upper 90s in central/southern IL and southern/western IA and 100s in parts of SD/NE/KS/MO. However, this is both delayed and more short-lived compared to yesterday’s outlook, with a slight easing in the 11 to 15 day allowing highs to dip back into mostly the upper 80s to low 90s in all but the far southwest Midwest. While some stress will occur in about 20% of the Midwest (hottest areas in far west and driest areas in northeast), the favorable moisture supplies will limit impacts elsewhere. In addition, both the 6 to 10 and 11 to 15 day show better chances for a few scattered thundershowers in the central/southeast Midwest. The 16 to 30 day outlook focuses the greatest risks for stress on the northeast 1/4 of the Midwest corn/soy and southern 1/4 of Delta soy.

 

In South America, Argentina was mostly dry yesterday, with rans confined to far southern wheat areas through next week to aid corn harvest/ wheat seeding. Rains in the 11 to 15 day lead to corn harvest delays but low damage threats. Brazil rains (.25 to 1.5”, locally 3”) favored the south-ern 1/3 of wheat yesterday. Showers linger this weekend, aiding wheat growth. Corn/sugar harvest delays in the south 1/2 of the belt are brief, with a dry 6 to 15 day period on tap.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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