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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +1, soybeans +9, wheat +3, crude oil -.09, dollar -.16, gold even and the Dow -20.
  • Grains higher overnight. No real changes to the weather forecast. Support coming from bargain buying and an oversold technical condition. Trade will watch export sales this morning for an uptick in demand and for updated weather models.
  • Corn basis seen strengthening with processors paying pushes in several areas.
  • China imported 111,651 cubic meters of ethanol in June. This was down from the record May imports of 263,388 but still up 440% from a year ago.
  • The Argentine trucker strike continues. The government has gotten involved and there is some optimism it will be settled soon.
  • Weekly ethanol data yesterday showed production jump almost 2.5% to a new record high level of 1.029 mln bbl/day.
  • Wednesday funds sold 12,000 soybeans, 8,000 corn and 3,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In North America, showers favored northern Alberta, northern/southeast Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, northeast ND, northern/eastern MN, western WI, far eastern IA, southwest IL, southwest IN, and western KY in the past day. Low 90s expanded into the western Midwest, with 100s limited to the western fringes of the belt. Heat peaks in the next two days and is largely unchanged for the Midwest, ranging from low to mid 90s east to upper 90s to 100s in the far west. The weekend is

not quite as hot in the east, and readings still otherwise cool into the 80s to low 90s into early August. Showers scatter into the eastern/far northern Midwest in the short-term, with the best rain chances in drier eastern areas on Friday and again late in the weekend. Rain potential has shifted into more of OH and less of MI/eastern IL compared to yesterday. 6 to 15 day rains expand in the southern/western Midwest and northern Delta. Combined with reduced temperatures, this will aid corn/soy yield. The driest areas will remain in the northeast 1/4 of the Midwest. While the near-term showers may offer some minor relief, the region is still least-favored in the 6 to 15 and 16 to 30 day outlooks. Dry spots will also linger in the southern ¼ of the Delta soy, but 6 to 15 day rains will limit concerns elsewhere in the South. An active Canadian pattern will continue to limit opportunities for drying into August, elevating disease concerns in about 1/3 of wheat/canola.

 

In South America, a rain event early next week briefly slows Argentine corn harvest/wheat seeding,

with no damage concerns as drier weather then returns. Frost this morning in southeast Argentina

led to lows as cold as mid 20s in central Buenos Aires but were insufficient to cause damage.

Brazil shower potential remains confined to Rio Grande do Sul, aiding wheat development.

Safrinha corn/sugar/coffee harvest farther north moves well in the next two weeks.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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