Morning Outlook

Overnight Highlights

• Overnight markets have corn +2, soybeans even, wheat +5-7, crude oil -.40, dollar -.14, gold -7.0 and the Dow +11.
• Mixed grain trade this morning. Corn supported on the competitiveness of US corn and the lack of any weather premium. Wheat firm on EU wheat issues (concern quality may not meet futures grade in Paris). Soybeans mixed on less threatening August weather and the continued fund length.
• Trade expects very little change in ratings from this afternoon’s Crop Conditions.
• Trade is now into an above-trend-estimate corn yield mode as we enter the time when individual yield estimates will be floating from various parts of the country.
• Brazil corn harvest has gotten to about 50% but cash offers there are firming and farmers have been slow sellers.
• Friday’s COT report showed Managed Money is now net short corn of -13,362, off -22,064 in the week prior to Tuesday. Soybeans are long 137,692, off -21,715. Wheat is a record net short of -116,606 after adding -1,938 shorts.
• Trade will be on the alert for short covering rallies in wheat on the huge short fund position and quality issues in Europe.
• Friday’s Cattle on Feed report (vs estimates); On Feed 101% (101.6%), Placements 103% (106.4%), Marketings 109% (109.5%)

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In North America, weekend thundershowers favored southwest NE, northeast CO, central/southwest KS, north-central/ eastern SD, central/northeast ND, central/southeast MN, northeast IA, central/northeast MO, northern/central IL, southern WI, southwest MI, northwest IN, central OH, west-central KY, northern/southwest MS, and northern LA. 100s were limited to mainly central SD/KS/AR, with widespread 90s (mostly low to mid 90s) elsewhere. Severe heat remains south and west of the Midwest in the next two weeks, with highs in the 80s to low 90s. The GFS model is more aggressive with heat late 6 to 10 and 11 to 15 day in the western Midwest (90s)/Plains (100s), but the more modest Euro is preferred given recent skill. A relatively active storm track will continue to favor corn/soy growth, with the best chance for holding onto moisture stress around the Great Lakes (1/4 of less of the Midwest). The Euro is even wetter through the Great Lakes than our 10-day out-look, but a more southern track is favored given recent biases. The 16 to 30 day outlook remains warmer than normal, but an active storm track should limit concerns to the northeast corner of the Midwest. Dry spots in the southern Delta could see some relief in the next week, and concerns for late soy growth in the Deep South remain patchy. A lack of sustained drying in the Canadian Prairies will cause surplus moisture and elevated disease risks to persist for wheat/canola into August.

In South America, Argentine showers gradually increase today but end tomorrow, limiting corn harvest/wheat seeding interruptions. Another light event late this weekend briefly slows fieldwork again, focusing in the east 1/4 of the corn belt. Minor wheat burn back (no permanent damage) is possible at times in the next two weeks from light frost. Brazil shower activity in the next two weeks largely focuses in Rio Grande do Sul, aiding wheat. Corn/sugar harvest remain favorable.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

www.waterstreet.org 
or 1-866-249-2528