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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -1, soybeans +2, wheat -4, crude oil -.60, dollar -.22, gold even and the Dow +28.
  • Mixed trade overnight as crop conditions were essentially unchanged.
  • Yesterday’s crop conditions saw essentially no change in conditions and found 79% of corn silked vs long term average of 70% and 76% of soybeans blooming vs long term average of 66%.
  • US Wheat Quality Council spring wheat crop tour starts today and wraps up Thursday with the release of tour numbers.
  • Yesterday’s US soybean export inspections of 25.7 mln bu was the largest summer total on record. Asian and European ships are arriving at the PNW and Gulf for additional shipments.
  • On the corn export front, Brazil is offering no corn for export and Argentina’s bids continue to rise – leaving the US as the main provider.
  • Models continue to hint at a return of heat to the Midwest upon August’s arrival.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In North America, showers favored southeast MT, southeast ND, southeast KS, southern MO, southeast IL, far southern IN, far southern OH, west-central KY, parts of northwest TN, and southern LA in the past day. Highs were in the 80s to low 90s in the Midwest, with widespread readings well into the 90s in the Deep South. Showers favor the far southern/western Midwest this week (mainly between Wednesday and Friday), with 6 to 10 day rains expanding in the northwest Midwest as well.

Rains also fill in across most of the Delta in the next ten days to aid late soy pod set and fill. Risks are mostly to the wetter side of our forecast in the central/northeast Midwest this week (mainly Euro) and the central Midwest next week (mainly GFS). 11 to 15 day showers are expected to shift northward, returning better rains to the central Midwest. Given current favorable soil moisture in most of the Midwest, this would limit the main concerns for moisture stress to 1/4 or less of Midwest

corn/soy (mainly around the Great Lakes). Mid 90s may briefly expand into the southwest Midwest late in the 6 to 10 day and again late in the 11 to 15 day, but highs otherwise are mostly in the low 80s to low 90s. 16 to 30 day rains remain fairly active in the central/western Midwest as well to limit concerns to drier sections of the eastern Midwest despite the potential of continued warmth. Wet weather in the Canadian Prairies will keep disease risks elevated for wheat/canola into August.

 

In China, lighter shower activity across southern Northeast China in the next ten days allows wettest

fields in Liaoning (additional 2”+ yesterday) to drain. Farther north, occasional low to mid 90s for

dry areas next week briefly stresses 10% or less of corn/soy. Cooler/wetter 11 to 15 day conditions

ease concerns. The GFS model was not as wet for this weekend in the N. China Plain and trended

toward the drier Euro guidance, limiting the extent of any further flooding damage to corn/soy.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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