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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +1, soybeans +4, wheat +3-4, crude oil +.22, dollar -.55, gold +16.0 and the Dow -10.
  • Higher markets overnight on the lower US dollar and technical coming out of an oversold condition.
  • Export sales will be out this morning. Vessels continue to head toward the US as a destination. Record large soybean exports for August and September are expected.
  • Estimates for upcoming soybean acreage in Brazil up 2% in this next planting season. This would be the smallest increase in the past 10 years but still a record crop with cooperative weather.
  • Wheat Quality Council spring wheat crop tour on Wednesday pegged central and northwestern North Dakota yields at 46.9 bpa, which lags last year’s of 47.3 bpa.
  • French group ODA pegged the French harvest at 134 mln mt, which is off the previous forecast of 151 mln mt. They noted there is opportunity for further reductions.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In North America, showers favored eastern MN, WI, far west-central/far southeast IL, southern IN, southern OH, KY, western TN, eastern AR, western MS, central LA, western KS, west-central ND, central Alberta, and southwest Saskatchewan in the past day. Highs were in the mid 70s to low 90s in the Midwest, with hotter conditions limited to the Southeast. Scattered showers occur mostly in the southern Midwest/Delta this week, although a few spottier showers may occur in the central/

southeast Midwest. Rains then stretch from northwest to southeast across the Midwest in the 6 to 10 day and favor the southwest during the 11 to 15 day, maintaining favorable moisture for most corn/soy areas. Any dryness concerns should remain limited to less than 1/4 of corn/soy, mainly in the far eastern Midwest (parts of MI/northern OH/northeast IN). Forecast guidance does lean wetter in these areas than our outlook in the 6 to 10 day. Highs will rise into the mid 90s (GFS still much

hotter but not favored) in the southwest Midwest in the 6 to 10 day, but the 11 to 15 day trended slightly cooler. Our 16 to 30 day outlook continues to show the greatest risk for heat/dryness around the Great Lakes, with most other areas maintaining adequate moisture despite a warmer than normal pattern. Rains ease again in the Delta next week, but short-term rains will aid soy pod development. Wetness concerns in Canada appear most likely to focus on Alberta wheat/canola.

 

In China, short-term showers occur in the N. China Plain/far southern Northeast China, but further

corn/soy damage is unlikely. The Euro model trended wetter (particularly in the southwest N.

China Plain) in the 6 to 10 day, but confidence is poor as it is based on remnants of a tropical storm

that has yet to develop. Drier/warmer (90s) weather in central Northeast China stresses 10%

corn/15% soy, and confidence in 11 to 15 day relief slipped due to delays in the arrival of rains.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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