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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -1, soybeans -6, wheat -2, crude oil -.35, dollar -.50, gold even and the Dow -33.
  • Softer trade overnight on cooperative weather, growing corn yield expectations and long fund position in soybeans.
  • China sold 84k mt of soybean reserves of the 600k mt offered. Officials cited the drop in international soybean price and lower domestic meal and oil prices for the cause of the low interest.
  • The Wheat Quality Council tour concluded yesterday with an estimated spring wheat yield at 45.7 bpa vs last year’s estimate of 49.9 bu and the five year average of 45.9 bu.
  • Updated fund positions as of Tuesday will be out this afternoon.
  • Thursday funds sold 10,000 corn, 5,000 soybeans and 3,000 wheat contracts.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

 

In North America, scattered showers favored central SD, southwest NE, central/southern KS, northern LA, southwest MS, northern TN, central/southern KY, south-central IN, northern/central IL, far southern WI, and far western MI in the past day. A series of scattered showers will favor the central/northwest Midwest in the 1 to 5 day, with a few patchy showers farther east but limited improvement for dry spots around the Great Lakes. Rains then favor the central/southwest Midwest in the 6 to 10 day and the northwest Midwest in the 11 to 15 day, keeping rain chances most limited in the far eastern Midwest. While the Euro guidance still poses wetter risks to our forecast around the Great Lakes in the next ten days, lingering dry spots pose the main threat for crop stress (less than 1/4 of the Midwest as a whole). Temperatures will rise into the mid/upper 90s for the southwest Midwest in the 6 to 10 day and again at the end of the 11 to 15 day, but the rest of the belt will peak in the upper 80s/low 90s. Showers remain most limited around the Great Lakes into the 16 to 30 day as well. Temperatures will be warmer than normal, but the main concern will be occasional periods of warmer nights during August that could hinder filling corn at times rather than severe daytime heat. Delta rains are aiding soy development this week. Frequent rains in Canada will continue to raise disease threats for wheat/canola, particularly in Alberta.

 

In China, showers occur this weekend in the N. China Plain/far southwest Northeast China, but

further corn/soy damage is unlikely. The Euro is very wet in the 6 to 10 day for the N. China Plain

due to a tropical system, while the GFS tracks much farther south into northern Vietnam and is

favored. While a few showers reached dry spots in central Northeast China yesterday, 90s cause

minor stress farther north (up to 15% soy/10% corn) next week ahead of 11 to 15 day rains.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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