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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +1/2, soybeans +8, wheat +2-3, crude oil -.10, dollar +.30, gold even and the Dow +51.
  • Grains generally higher this morning off oversold charts and end user pricing.
  • Linn & Associates estimate corn yield at 171.4 bpa with production at 14.775 bln bu. They estimated soybean yield at 48.6 bpa with a production estimate at 4.073 bln bu. Last week AgResource estimated corn yield at 169.8 bpa while FC Stone’s elevator survey came in at 175 bpa.
  • China sold 143,503 mt of corn from reserves. 3.2 mln mt were offered.
  • Weekly export sales will be out this morning.
  • Thursday funds bought 6,000 wheat, 2,000 soybeans an 1,000 soybeans.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In North America, scattered showers favored parts of northeast/far southeast ND, east-central SD, northern/southwest MN, southern IL, western KY, west-central TN, central SC, southern NC, central Alberta, central Saskatchewan, and southern/ west-central Manitoba in the past day. Highs were in the mid 80s to low 90s in the Midwest, with hotter readings limited to KS and the Delta. Scattered showers in the balance of this week occur in the central/southwest Midwest, with additional weekend

showers in the far southwest. Rains expand in the 6 to 10 day in much of the central/western Midwest, with additional showers in the south/far west in the 11 to 15 day. Dry spots remain limited this month to approximately 15% of the Midwest, with parts of MI/IN/OH still at most risk to be short-changed. will rise into the upper 80s/low 90s in much of the Midwest today, with similar readings next Wednesday to Friday (perhaps mid 90s into the southwest). However, the lack of more severe

heat will still limit any concerns, given the favorable moisture supplies. Showers scatter into the Delta frequently enough in the next two weeks to limit late soy/cotton concerns there as well, with frequent rains aiding Southeast crop growth. The 16 to 30 day shifted slightly wetter in the OH Valley, with extensive near to above normal temperatures but hottest in the South. Frequent showers will continue to raise quality concerns for Canadian wheat/canola, but yield potential remains high.

 

In Europe/FSU, rains (.25 to 1.25”) tapered off in central Ukraine corn yesterday, while hampering

wheat harvest in northern Germany. Ukraine turns drier in the next 10 days, stressing 1/3 of corn that

is still notably short of moisture. Yield declines are limited due to a lack of heat. In Europe, rains focus on Germany/Poland and lead to ongoing wheat harvest delays and potential damage. However, rains are limited enough in France/U.K. to allow harvest to progress more favorably.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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