Home Market Market Watch Morning Outlook

Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +1 ½, soybeans +12, wheat +2-4, crude oil -.32, dollar -.20, gold +1.0 and the Dow +22.
  • Higher markets overnight on continued export demand and the oversold condition of the markets.
  • The French Farm Ministry lowered their estimate for French wheat production to 29.1 mln mt vs last month’s estimate of 36.9 mln mt. This would be the lowest French wheat yield in 30 years.
  • Outside markets will be watching this month’s July employment numbers. Expectation is for stronger hiring pace this past month.
  • China sold 101,726 mt at their reserve auction of the 602,270 mt that were offered.
  • Soybean export sales to date are 52.4 mln mt vs 50.6 mln last year on this date. The USDA will likely need to raise their export number in the next S&D report.
  • Commitment of Traders report will be out this afternoon. Trade will be watching to see how much more was added to short corn and wheat as well as how much of the still long soybean position has been reduced.
  • Warm weather looks to persist in the eastern Corn Belt for August while active showers showing up in models for the 6-10 day outlook.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

In North America, scattered showers favored parts of southeast MN, central/western WI, eastern IA, western IL, southcentral IN, KS, west-central TN, southern AL, southwest/east-central GA, central/southern SC, northeast Alberta, and northwest Saskatchewan in the past day. Highs were in the 80s to low 90s in the Midwest in the past day, with mid 90s to low 100s confined to the Delta/far southwest Midwest. Scattered showers occur in mainly southern NE/KS/MO/southwest IA in

the next five days, with only patchy activity elsewhere in the Midwest. However, widespread rains are expected to favor the central/northwest Midwest in the 6 to 10 day and will keep most of the driest spots in the Midwest limited to IN/OH/MI (15% of belt). A few showers may scatter through the southern Great Lakes in the 11 to 15 day, but some moisture stress will likely persist. Elsewhere, the favorable moisture and lack of extreme heat will aid corn/soy yields. Mid 90s are possible in the

southwest Midwest next Wednesday to Friday, but highs otherwise remain in the 80s/low 90s in the next two weeks. The Delta outlook inched drier for the short-term, and dry patches may rebuild for soy in parts of mainly AR and adjacent parts of TN/MS during the balance of August. Frequent rains will aid the Southeast, while wet spots in Canada wheat/canola will hold on to quality concerns but high yield potential.

 

In Europe/FSU, rains (.25 to 1”, locally 2”) benefit South Russia corn yesterday but hampered wheat

harvest in eastern France/southern Germany. Ukraine dryness in the next ten days stresses 1/3

of corn, while heat may clip South Russia yields next week. In Europe, rains are lighter but focus

on Germany/Poland in the next ten days, resulting in ongoing wheat harvest delays and potential

damage. France/U.K. harvest progress improves, with minimal showers in the next ten days.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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