Morning Outlook

Overnight Highlights

• Overnight markets have corn +1, soybeans +6, wheat +1, crude oil -.15, dollar -.70, gold +12.0 and the Dow +11.
• Higher markets overnight from continued strong export demand and lower US dollar. Weather outlook non-threatening. Look for choppy trade into Friday’s report.
• Brazil’s government crop production estimate lowered corn and soybeans incrementally from last month’s report. 15/16 soybeans crop came in at 95.4 mln mt vs 95.5 mln last month while corn was put at 68.4 mln mt vs July at 69.1 and last year at 84.6 mln mt.
• USDA ending stocks Friday for 15/16 corn are expected at 1.716 bln vs the July estimate of 1.701 and soybeans at 316 mln vs July at 290.
• 16/17 ending stocks are estimated to come in at 2.255 bln in corn vs July’s estimate of 2.081 and soybeans at 316 mln vs 290 in July.
• Yesterday was the 10^th consecutive day the USDA had sales announcements for soybeans.
• Tuesday funds sold 7,000 corn, 1,000 wheat and bought 3,000 soybeans.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In North America, showers favored southern ND, northern SD, south-central/northwest MN, southern IN, central/southern OH, central KY, southern AL, far southwest GA, central SC, northeast NC, northern/far southeast MT, eastern Alberta, and western Saskatchewan in the past day. Highs were in the mid 80s to low 90s for the Midwest and will peak in the upper 80s/ low 90s through Friday before easing again. Guidance shows better support for wetter trends this week and in the 11 to 15 day. Showers continue in the western Midwest in the next two days and focus to the east into the weekend. Showers return to the northwest late in the 6 to 10 day and spread through much of the southern/western Midwest in the 11 to 15 day. The rains will recharge topsoil moisture and limit patchy dry spots (15% or less of the belt) to mainly western MI/far northern IN/far northwest IA/far southwest MN/far northeast NE/southeast SD in the next ten days. Rains will also be very active in the next ten days for the Delta, with only a brief downturn in the 11 to 15 day. While flooding issues should remain localized, the combination of the near-term rain and a wetter 16 to 30 day trend will slow early corn/soy harvest and could pose a threat to cot-ton quality. Dry spots will persist in parts of the Southeast (mainly GA) in the rest of the month. Rains this week and in the 11 to 15 day will slow wheat harvest in the N. Plains and western Canada, persisting into the 16 to 30 day in the N. Plains.

In Europe/FSU, rains (.25 to 1”) scattered across Germany/southern Poland and slowed wheat harvest yesterday, lingering into the weekend. Drier conditions develop early next week. However, extensive rains move in at the middle of next week, slowing harvest for U.K., France, and Germany. The rains should ease stress on the dry 1/4 of France corn. Ukraine corn sees significant showers overspread the belt through the week-end, likely ending stress in nearly all areas.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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