Morning Outlook

Overnight Highlights

• Overnight markets have corn -1, soybeans -2, wheat mixed, crude oil -.14, dollar +.17, gold -1.0 and the Dow +50.
• Grains mostly lower this morning as the market is wrestling between good demand and big supply. Tomorrow’s USDA report will speak to both of those factors. Average trade estimate for the USDA report for corn yield at 170.6 bpa and soybean guess at 47.5 bpa.
• Crop tours will be continuing this week while the most prominent Pro Farmer Tour will be starting August 22^nd. Illinois tours are finding strong yields, as expected.
• Yield anticipations are working to balance the high crop condition ratings with what impact the accelerated crop maturity and warmer weather has had on grain fill and final yield. Since April 15^th the Des Moines area is 269 GDUs above 2014 and Bloomington IL is 331 GDUs above 2014 in accumulation.
• Strategie Grains lowered their estimate for 16/17 EU soft wheat production to 137.9 mln mt vs last month’s estimate of 145.5 mln.
• EIA weekly ethanol production came in at an impressive 1.02 mln bbls per day, up 14,000 from last week while stocks were off 143,000 bbls from last week.
• Yesterday funds sold 5,000 soybeans and bought 4,500 wheat and 1,000 corn.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In North America, showers favored eastern Dakotas, MN, northwestern IA, southern IN, /southwestern OH, southern MS, southern AL, southeastern GA, central SC, and southern Saskatchewan in the past day. Highs were mainly in the 80s to lower 90s for the Midwest but will ease back into the 70s to 80s after today and should remain there through next week. Showers slowly but steadily expand from northwest to southeast across the Midwest through the weekend. Showers next week are likely to be limited to the northwest and southeast corners of the belt but there is a wetter risk based on a slim majority of the ensembles. In any event rains are likely to expand across the Midwest again in the 11 to 15 day. The dry spots (<15% of the belt) in the northeast belt could see relief this weekend but if they miss stress is likely through the remainder of corn/soy filling. Rains will remain very active in the next 2 weeks for the Delta. Flooding risks remain localized, but the wet-ness particularly in the northern Delta will slow early corn/soy harvest and poses a threat to cotton quality. Most of the Southeast sees rains maintain adequate moisture for all but southeastern GA again next week. Drier trends in the next two weeks in the N. Plains should improve spring wheat harvest conditions. Heavy rains in southern MN last night had limited impact as much of the wheat in that area was harvested. Even the Canadian Prairies are less wet potentially easing harvest concerns.

In Europe/FSU, rains (.25 to 1”) was limited to northwest Germany/southern Poland wheat harvest areas yesterday. The next significant rain event moves in mid next week with main rains hampering harvest in Germany, Poland, and the Baltics. The rain potential has been reduced for France keeping wheat harvest delays minor but keeping the dry 1/4 of France corn under stress. Ukraine corn sees significant showers overspread the belt through the weekend ending most stress.

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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