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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +4, soybeans +15, wheat +4, crude oil mixed, dollar -.05, gold +1.0 and the Dow +37.
  • Higher overnight markets despite Friday’s bearish production outlook. Trade seeing too much demand and doubt in the yield forecasts.
  • Prevent Plant acres reported Friday for corn came in at 1.039 mln ac vs 2.301 mln in 2015. Soybeans were 237,000 ac vs 2.173 mln last year.
  • Export inspections out this morning are expected to continue the aggressive pace thanks to the US competitive price position although heavy Gulf rains will provide some loading delays.
  • NOPA’s July crush report will be out this morning. Avg estimate is for 146.7 mln bu vs 145.2 mln last year.
  • Crop condition ratings this afternoon are expected to drop a point on both corn and soybeans.
  • Pro Farmer’s crop tour begins in one week.
  • COT info Friday saw as of Tuesday, Managed Money added another -32,645 to their already large net short position, taking them to -137,077 net. They added some to their long soybeans and covered some of their huge short wheat position.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

·         E. Midwest rains ease dry corn/soy spots (heaviest through tonight); additional flooding remains localized

·         Showers return to W. Midwest late-week, eliminating most lingering dry patches and aiding late corn/soy growth

·         Mild pattern also aids late crop development; Midwest highs mainly mid 70s to upper 80s rest of month

·         Severe flooding in LA impacted mainly rice areas but starting to shift north; Delta wetness threatens cotton quality

·         Only localized flooding in C. Delta this week; frequent showers to slow early corn/soy harvest next 10 days

·         N. Plains harvest interruptions should be fairly minor rest of month; patchy Canadian wetness lingers but eases

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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