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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -1, soybeans -10, wheat mixed, crude oil +.27, dollar -.26, gold +5.0 and the Dow +10.
  • Lower markets this morning as soybeans have encountered overhead resistance on the charts and the trade continues to anticipate big harvest supplies.
  • Export sales this morning met trade expectations for soybeans and wheat and exceeded expectation for corn.
  • Weekly ethanol production yesterday showed a huge weekly production of 1.03 mln bbls/day and a drop in stocks from the previous week.
  • Talk that China was shopping 4 to 5 cargoes of soybeans again yesterday.
  • Funds were reportedly buyers of 8,000 corn, 4,500 soybeans and 2,500 wheat yesterday.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

·         Weekend rains increased in C. & NE Midwest corn/soy, reduced west; any notably heavy totals very localized

·         Heavier amounts (locally 4”+) in S. Midwest in 6-10 day, but IL/IN/OH dry back out in 11-15 day to limit concerns

·         Lingering dry patches remain confined to less than 10% of corn/soy; MO/KS at most risk for excess 6-15 day rain

·         Delta wetness lingers this week to slow corn harvest, threaten opening cotton bolls; rains ease in 6-15 day though

·         Limited showers, N. Plains spring wheat harvest nears completion; only minor Canadian delays, wet spots ease

·         Active storm track leads to abundant pre-planting moisture for Plains winter wheat, particularly TX/OK

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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