Morning Outlook

Overnight Highlights

• Overnight markets have corn -1 ½, soybeans -15, wheat mixed, crude oil even, dollar +.32, gold -8.0 and the Dow -55.
• Lower grains overnight led by weakness in soybeans. Profit taking on the recent rally, softer crush margins in China and the weight of the anticipated big harvest looming.
• The annual Pro Farmer crop tour starts Monday. Monday’s meetings will be in Fishers IN and Grand Island NE.
• China continues to struggle to unload reserves on auction as global feed prices are still viable for end users there.
• China bought a couple more cargoes of US soybeans yesterday.
• Rains are stalling Delta corn harvest. Additional accumulation expected over the next 10 days.
• USDA Cattle on Feed report out this afternoon. Estimates of On Feed 101.4%, Placements 100.5%, Marketings 99.7%.
• Funds estimated buyers of 7,000 corn, 1,750 wheat and even soybeans yesterday.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

·         Short-term rains (slightly reduced) favor Great Lakes/far SW Midwest; heaviest in 6-10 day Plains/SW Midwest

·         MO/KS/OK/N. TX at greatest risk for pockets of too much rain; moisture still otherwise aids filling soy in Midwest

·         Far N. Delta wetter mid/late next week, but most of corn/soy/cotton see needed drying after tomorrow

·         Limited interruptions to late N. Plains spring wheat harvest; pushes toward completion during rest of month

·         Wetter outlook both early and late next week slows drying in wet sections of W. Canada wheat/canola

·         Pre-planting moisture continues to build for much of Plains winter wheat

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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