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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -1 ½, soybeans +2, wheat -1-4, crude oil -1.30, dollar +.14, gold -7.0 and the Dow +50.
  • Mixed trade overnight. Support from strong demand but selling off the anticipated large coming harvest and weaker energy market.
  • Pro Farmer tour starts today. Last year’s yield estimate from the tour came in at 164.3 bpa vs the USDA’s final yield of 168.4 bpa.
  • Estimates in Argentina are for planted soybean acres of 19.3 to 19.7 mln hectares vs last year’s planted acres of 20.2 mln ha.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed Managed money continued to be aggressive sellers of corn, adding -24k contracts to their net short position now at -161,479. The slightly reduced their long soybean position and had a small reduction in their large wheat short.
  • China keeps shopping US soybeans.
  • Friday’s Cattle on Feed report had On Feed 101% vs 101.4% estimate, Placements 102% vs 100.5%, Marketings 99% vs 99.7%.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

·         Heaviest weekend rain (3 to locally 7”) in north-central & far SE IA/C. WI/far SW MI/C. & SE KS/TN Valley/C. & S. TX

·         Midwest rains return late Tue.-Thu., heaviest C. & SW IA/N. MO/E. KS/far E. NE; wetter trends far NW/drier east

·         6-15 day rains also most frequent in W. Midwest corn/soy and threaten pockets of excess rain (main risk in IA)

·         Wet spots in W. Delta not as wet next 2 weeks but not completely dry; biggest quality concerns for LA soy/cotton/rice

·         Showers cause minor interruptions to late spring wheat harvest in NE Plains next 10 days, but no major concerns

·         Extensive rains next 2 days and intermittent 6-15 day showers slow drying for Can. wheat/canola, particularly Alberta

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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