Home Market Market Watch Morning Outlook

Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -4, soybeans -5, wheat -1-5, crude oil -.40, dollar -.18, gold -1.0 and the Dow +43.
  • Lower trade overnight on corn crop conditions ticking up 1% to 75% G/E and the continued ‘big supply’ anticipation. Strong demand continues to underpin the market, highlighted by yesterday’s exceptional export inspections.
  • Pro Farmer tour estimated Ohio at 148.9 bpa vs the USDA final of 163 bpa. Last year they estimated Ohio at 148.3 bpa vs the USDA final of 153.
  • Pro Farmer soybean pod count for Ohio was 1,055 vs 1,125 last year. South Dakota soybean pod count was 970.6 vs 1,054 last year.
  • Stats Canada will be out with their 2016 crop production estimates this morning. Wheat is expected higher than last year but canola, corn and soybeans are all expected to be lower production than last year.
  • Yesterday funds were estimated buyers of 6,000 soybeans and sellers of 5,000 corn and 6,000 wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

·         Expanding Midwest rains into Thu. and again this weekend; locally 2.5 to 6” in C. & S. IA/SE NE/N. MO/far NE KS

·         Frequent rain chances continue into 6-15 day, particularly in W. Midwest; pockets of excess moisture in SW 1/3

·         Wettest areas encounter increased disease/quality risks for soy, hinder dry down of corn; rest of belt stable

·         Recent wetness in Delta eases next 2 weeks for most part, but soy/cotton/rice concerns linger in south (mainly LA)

·         Euro tracks tropical storm into FL early next week; confidence still low, but primary possible threat to citrus

·         Showers keep wheat/canola yield potential high but still some quality concerns possible for W. Canada next 10 days

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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