Home Market Market Watch Morning Outlook

Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn -2, soybeans -7, wheat -3, crude oil -1.00, dollar +.20, gold -5.0 and the Dow +7.
  • Grain markets lower on continued big supply expectations and corn-belt rains for soybeans.
  • Pro Farmer’s day to of the tour estimated Indiana corn at 173.4 bpa vs the current USDA estimate of 187 bpa. Last year the tour estimated Indiana at 142.9 bpa vs the final USDA of 150 bpa. Soybean pod counts came in close to the three year average.
  • In Nebraska the tour found significant more poor yields than many were expecting due to early season environmental conditions. The estimated yield for the state is at 158.6 bpa vs the USDA estimate of 187 bpa. Last year the tour estimated the NE yield at 165.1 bpa vs the final USDA yield of 185 bpa. Soybean pod counts matched last year.
  • FOB Gulf and PNW values for corn are firmer on continued demand. However, Argentine and Ukrainian corn values are nearing US prices.
  • Funds were estimated sellers of 11,000 corn, 5,000 wheat and 500 soybeans yesterday.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Locally 5”+ NE/IA border, far SW WI & far NE IA in past day; heaviest KS, far SE NE, MO/IA border in short-term

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Euro model tracks tropical storm into Gulf in first 1/2 of next week, leading to drier W. Midwest & wetter Delta

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Confidence still very low, as some other models either keep storm much farther east and/or much weaker

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Further wetness/flooding damage concerns in S. Delta soy/cotton/rice/sugarcane if tropical system tracks into region

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Potential 6-10 day break would aid wet spots in W. Midwest, but IA & adjacent areas turn wet again in 11-15 day

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Very active Canada rainfall aids late wheat/canola growth but hinders maturation; patchy quality issues possible

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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