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Morning Outlook

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Overnight Highlights

  • Overnight markets have corn +1/2, soybeans -8, wheat +3, crude oil -.16, dollar -.09, gold -1.0 and the Dow +34.
  • Generally lower trade overnight. Pro Farmer getting into the middle of the corn-belt and yield expectations are picking up, but still may not quite be to USDA levels.
  • Pro Farmer estimate for Illinois came in at 193.5 bpa vs the USDA estimate of 200 bpa. Last year’s Pro Farmer estimate for Illinois was 171.6 vs the final USDA of 175 bpa. Illinois soybean pod counts came in a bit above the three year average.
  • Weekly export sales will be out this morning.
  • EIA reported Ethanol production at 1.030 mln bbls/day, off 1,000 from last week but still a very aggressive pace. Stocks bumped up 392,000 bbls.
  • Argentine and Ukraine corn prices are pursuing US levels on the global market and gaining competitiveness.
  • Yesterday funds were estimated sellers of 5,000 soybeans, 3,000 corn and 1,500 wheat.
  • On-going wet weather and a return of above normal temperatures continues to grow the concern for disease impact in the maturing Midwest corn and soybeans. Wet pattern outlook is persistent for the next 30 days which could create harvest disruptions.
  • The final numbers from Pro Farmer and the adjusted state by state yields will be announced tonight in Rochester MN.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

 

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Heaviest rain in SW Midwest in past day, but good coverage extended into N. OH Valley

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Similar pattern rest of week, with wettest areas in parts of KS/N. MO; SW Midwest then sees break until 11-15 day

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Wettest conditions from end of next week into 11-15 day focus on mainly parts of MN/IA

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Track of potential tropical storm shifted slightly east early next week; drier OH Valley/wetter Southeast in 6-10 day

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Confidence still very limited on track, but main risks with current outlook for citrus in far S. FL & Southeast soy/cotton

<![if !supportLists]>·         <![endif]>Active storm track will keep pockets of too much moisture in place for Can. Prairies, hinders maturing wheat/canola

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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